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Serie A

Referee: F Pasqua

Milan

S T T T S

2–2

Full-time

Lecce

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

43%

29%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

43%

71%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,1

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

18 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 14. · Lecce 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	7	1	0	+8	22
2	Inter	8	7	0	1	+11	21
3	Atalanta	8	5	2	1	+8	17
4	Napoli	8	5	1	2	+7	16
5	Cagliari	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Roma	8	3	4	1	+2	13
7	Lazio	8	3	3	2	+7	12
8	Parma	8	4	0	4	+2	12
9	Fiorentina	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Torino	8	3	1	4	-1	10
11	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-2	10
12	Bologna	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Verona	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Milan	7	3	0	4	-3	9
15	Sassuolo	7	2	0	5	-2	6
16	Brescia	6	2	0	4	-2	6
17	Lecce	7	2	0	5	-8	6
18	Spal	8	2	0	6	-9	6
19	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-11	5
20	Sampdoria	8	1	1	6	-12	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Inter	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Parma	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Udinese	5	3	0	2	+0	9
6	Lazio	4	2	2	0	+6	8
7	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Spal	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Verona	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Roma	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Bologna	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	-4	4
18	Milan	3	1	0	2	-3	3
19	Brescia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Lecce	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Inter	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Roma	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Cagliari	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Milan	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Brescia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Lecce	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Bologna	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+1	4
13	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Parma	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Torino	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-10	1
18	Sassuolo	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Sampdoria	4	0	0	4	-8	0
20	Spal	4	0	0	4	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.