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Bundesliga

Referee: M Gräfe

FC Koln

S T T T U

3–0

Full-time

Paderborn

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 7%

14%

Points per game

0,6

0,1

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

71%

86%

Both score Ø 79%

57%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

2,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match FC Koln 17. · Paderborn 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	8	5	1	2	+8	16
2	Wolfsburg	8	4	4	0	+6	16
3	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+12	15
4	Dortmund	8	4	3	1	+9	15
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	3	1	+8	15
6	Schalke 04	7	4	2	1	+7	14
7	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Leverkusen	8	4	2	2	+1	14
10	Hertha	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Werder Bremen	8	2	3	3	-4	9
12	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	2	1	5	-4	7
14	Union Berlin	8	2	1	5	-5	7
15	Augsburg	8	1	3	4	-11	6
16	Mainz	8	2	0	6	-11	6
17	FC Koln	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Paderborn	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+5	11
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Leverkusen	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+8	7
6	M'gladbach	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Hertha	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Union Berlin	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+2	5
11	RB Leipzig	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	-2	5
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Mainz	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-5	3
17	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-7	0
18	Paderborn	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
2	M'gladbach	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Bayern Munich	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Schalke 04	3	2	1	0	+6	7
7	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Hertha	5	1	2	2	+0	5
9	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Dortmund	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Hoffenheim	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Mainz	5	1	0	4	-9	3
16	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Augsburg	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.