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La Liga
Referee: Javier Iglesias Villanueva
Sevilla
U S T T T
1–2
Full-time
Barcelona
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
4,0
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 48%
27%
68%
Points per game
1,1
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
49%
59%
Both score Ø 56%
57%
54%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,3
2,1
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,47 xG 1,35
39% Possession 61%
15 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 5
1 Offside 7
11 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sevilla 13. · Barcelona 2.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Real Madrid 38 29 8 1 +61 +34.8 95
2 Barcelona 37 25 7 5 +34 +37.2 82
3 Girona 38 25 6 7 +39 +16.6 81
4 Ath Madrid 38 24 4 10 +27 +22.9 76
5 Ath Bilbao 38 19 11 8 +24 +10.7 68
6 Sociedad 38 16 12 10 +12 +3.6 60
7 Betis 38 14 15 9 +3 -5.4 57
8 Villarreal 38 14 11 13 +0 -2.8 53
9 Valencia 38 13 10 15 -5 -4.3 49
10 Alaves 38 12 10 16 -10 +1.9 46
11 Osasuna 38 12 9 17 -11 -9.0 45
12 Getafe 38 10 13 15 -12 -8.0 43
13 Sevilla 37 10 11 16 -5 -11.8 41
14 Celta 38 10 11 17 -11 -4.5 41
15 Mallorca 38 8 16 14 -11 -2.9 40
16 Las Palmas 38 10 10 18 -14 -23.5 40
17 Vallecano 38 8 14 16 -19 -1.9 38
18 Cadiz 38 6 15 17 -29 -16.6 33
19 Almeria 38 3 12 23 -32 -13.5 21
20 Granada 38 4 9 25 -41 -23.4 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sevilla Barcelona
15′
Robert Lewandowski 0–1
João Cancelo
1–1 Youssef En-Nesyri
Boubakary Soumaré
31′
Kike Salas 🟨
36′
Half-time 1–1
Marcão 🔁
↦ Kike Salas
46′
46′
🔁 Oriol Romeu
↦ Andreas Christensen
49′
🟨 João Cancelo
59′
Fermín López 1–2
İlkay Gündoğan
62′
🔁 João Félix
↦ Lamine Yamal
62′
🔁 Ferran Torres
↦ Robert Lewandowski
75′
🔁 Vitor Roque
↦ Fermín López
Nemanja Gudelj 🔁
↦ Loïc Badé
79′
Manu Bueno 🔁
↦ Lucien Agoumé
79′
Mariano Díaz 🔁
↦ Dodi Lukebakio
79′
84′
🔁 Hector Fort
↦ João Cancelo
Alejo Véliz 🔁
↦ Youssef En-Nesyri
90′
Lucas Ocampos 🟨
93′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Sevilla

3-4-2-1
13 Ørjan Nyland G
22 Loïc Badé D
4 Sergio Ramos D
2 Kike Salas D
26 Juanlu Sánchez M
24 Boubakary Soumaré M
42 Lucien Agoumé M
3 Adrià Pedrosa M
5 Lucas Ocampos F
11 Dodi Lukebakio F
15 Youssef En-Nesyri F
Bench (12)
23 Marcão
6 Nemanja Gudelj
28 Manu Bueno
12 Mariano Díaz
10 Alejo Véliz
1 Marko Dmitrović
29 Darío Benavides
38 Diego Hormigo
14 Tanguy Nianzou
41 Stanis Idumbo Muzambo
8 Joan Jordán
46 Hannibal Mejbri

Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 Marc-André ter Stegen G
23 Jules Koundé D
33 Pau Cubarsí D
5 Iñigo Martínez D
2 João Cancelo D
8 Pedri M
15 Andreas Christensen M
22 İlkay Gündoğan M
27 Lamine Yamal F
9 Robert Lewandowski F
16 Fermín López F
Bench (10)
18 Oriol Romeu
14 João Félix
7 Ferran Torres
19 Vitor Roque
39 Hector Fort
31 Diego Kochen
13 Iñaki Peña
4 Ronald Araújo
20 Sergi Roberto
11 Raphinha

Coach: Xavi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,89
U
4,11
B ✓
1,83
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,50
U2,5
2,57
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Javier Iglesias Villanueva · 19 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.