La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Sevilla
Barcelona
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Real Madrid
|
38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | +61 | +34.8 | 95 |
| 2 |
Barcelona
|
37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | +34 | +37.2 | 82 |
| 3 |
Girona
|
38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | +39 | +16.6 | 81 |
| 4 |
Ath Madrid
|
38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | +27 | +22.9 | 76 |
| 5 |
Ath Bilbao
|
38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | +24 | +10.7 | 68 |
| 6 |
Sociedad
|
38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | +12 | +3.6 | 60 |
| 7 |
Betis
|
38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | +3 | -5.4 | 57 |
| 8 |
Villarreal
|
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | +0 | -2.8 | 53 |
| 9 |
Valencia
|
38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -5 | -4.3 | 49 |
| 10 |
Alaves
|
38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | -10 | +1.9 | 46 |
| 11 |
Osasuna
|
38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | -11 | -9.0 | 45 |
| 12 |
Getafe
|
38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | -12 | -8.0 | 43 |
| 13 |
Sevilla
|
37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | -11.8 | 41 |
| 14 |
Celta
|
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | -11 | -4.5 | 41 |
| 15 |
Mallorca
|
38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | -11 | -2.9 | 40 |
| 16 |
Las Palmas
|
38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | -14 | -23.5 | 40 |
| 17 |
Vallecano
|
38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | -19 | -1.9 | 38 |
| 18 |
Cadiz
|
38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -29 | -16.6 | 33 |
| 19 |
Almeria
|
38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | -32 | -13.5 | 21 |
| 20 |
Granada
|
38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | -41 | -23.4 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Ørjan Nyland
G
Loïc Badé
D
Kike Salas
D
Juanlu Sánchez
M
Lucien Agoumé
M
Adrià Pedrosa
M
Dodi Lukebakio
F
Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores
Marc-André ter Stegen
G
Jules Koundé
D
Pau Cubarsí
D
João Cancelo
D
Pedri
M
Andreas Christensen
M
İlkay Gündoğan
M
Lamine Yamal
F
Fermín López
F
Coach: Xavi
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Ath Bilbao
Sevilla
Sevilla
Cadiz
Villarreal
Sevilla
Sevilla
Granada
Betis
Sevilla
Javier Iglesias Villanueva · 19 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.