La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Villarreal
Las Palmas
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
27 | 22 | 3 | 2 | +52 | 69 |
| 2 |
Ath Madrid
|
27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | +28 | 61 |
| 3 |
Real Madrid
|
28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | +54 | 60 |
| 4 |
Villarreal
|
27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | +15 | 53 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | +10 | 44 |
| 6 |
Celta
|
28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 42 |
| 7 |
Ath Bilbao
|
27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | +6 | 41 |
| 8 |
Eibar
|
27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 |
Valencia
|
27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | +2 | 34 |
| 10 |
Sociedad
|
27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 |
Malaga
|
27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 12 |
La Coruna
|
27 | 6 | 14 | 7 | -2 | 32 |
| 13 |
Betis
|
27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | -12 | 31 |
| 14 |
Espanol
|
27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | -27 | 28 |
| 15 |
Las Palmas
|
27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 27 |
| 16 |
Getafe
|
27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -18 | 26 |
| 17 |
Vallecano
|
27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -21 | 26 |
| 18 |
Granada
|
27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -22 | 26 |
| 19 |
Sp Gijon
|
27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 |
Levante
|
27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | -26 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Celta
Villarreal
Villarreal
Levante
Ath Madrid
Villarreal
Villarreal
Malaga
Ath Bilbao
Villarreal
Carlos Clos Gomez · 41 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.