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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Ath Madrid

T T T S U

3–2

Full-time

Valencia

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 39%

45%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

65%

62%

Both score Ø 68%

60%

76%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

65% Possession 35%

16 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 22

5 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Valencia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	21	15	4	2	+27	49
2	Sevilla	22	13	7	2	+18	46
3	Betis	22	12	4	6	+16	40
4	Ath Madrid	20	9	6	5	+9	33
5	Sociedad	20	9	6	5	+1	33
6	Villarreal	22	8	8	6	+13	32
7	Barcelona	20	8	8	4	+8	32
8	Vallecano	20	9	4	7	+6	31
9	Valencia	21	7	8	6	+0	29
10	Ath Bilbao	21	6	10	5	+3	28
11	Celta	22	7	6	9	+1	27
12	Espanol	22	7	6	9	-4	27
13	Osasuna	21	6	7	8	-7	25
14	Granada	21	5	9	7	-5	24
15	Elche	21	5	7	9	-7	22
16	Getafe	21	5	6	10	-6	21
17	Mallorca	21	4	8	9	-16	20
18	Cadiz	22	3	9	10	-17	18
19	Alaves	21	4	5	12	-18	17
20	Levante	21	1	8	12	-22	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	11	8	3	0	+14	27
2	Vallecano	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Villarreal	12	7	3	2	+16	24
4	Real Madrid	10	7	3	0	+16	24
5	Betis	11	6	2	3	+11	20
6	Barcelona	10	6	2	2	+8	20
7	Espanol	11	6	2	3	+3	20
8	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	18
9	Sociedad	10	5	3	2	+1	18
10	Valencia	11	4	5	2	+5	17
11	Getafe	11	5	2	4	+3	17
12	Granada	10	4	3	3	+1	15
13	Ath Bilbao	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Elche	10	3	5	2	+0	14
15	Mallorca	10	2	6	2	+0	12
16	Alaves	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Celta	11	3	2	6	-2	11
18	Osasuna	11	2	5	4	-6	11
19	Levante	11	1	6	4	-6	9
20	Cadiz	11	0	6	5	-9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Betis	11	6	2	3	+5	20
3	Sevilla	11	5	4	2	+4	19
4	Celta	11	4	4	3	+3	16
5	Ath Madrid	11	4	3	4	+1	15
6	Sociedad	10	4	3	3	+0	15
7	Ath Bilbao	11	2	8	1	+2	14
8	Osasuna	10	4	2	4	-1	14
9	Barcelona	10	2	6	2	+0	12
10	Valencia	10	3	3	4	-5	12
11	Cadiz	11	3	3	5	-8	12
12	Granada	11	1	6	4	-6	9
13	Villarreal	10	1	5	4	-3	8
14	Elche	11	2	2	7	-7	8
15	Mallorca	11	2	2	7	-16	8
16	Espanol	11	1	4	6	-7	7
17	Vallecano	10	1	2	7	-10	5
18	Alaves	10	1	2	7	-13	5
19	Getafe	10	0	4	6	-9	4
20	Levante	10	0	2	8	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.