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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Ath Madrid
S T S U S
2–1
Full-time
Osasuna
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Osasuna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,3
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,3
This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches
Win Ø 49%
67%
31%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
39%
36%
Both score Ø 43%
42%
44%
Average goals
2,4
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
0,6
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,1
-0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

72% Possession 28%
26 Shots 5
9 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
8 Corners 0
6 Offside 2
2 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 1. · Osasuna 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ath Madrid 36 24 8 4 +40 80
2 Real Madrid 36 23 9 4 +37 78
3 Barcelona 36 23 7 6 +47 76
4 Sevilla 36 23 5 8 +23 74
5 Sociedad 36 15 11 10 +17 56
6 Villarreal 36 14 13 9 +13 55
7 Betis 36 15 10 11 -2 55
8 Celta 36 13 11 12 -2 50
9 Ath Bilbao 36 11 13 12 +7 46
10 Granada 36 13 6 17 -16 45
11 Osasuna 36 11 11 14 -9 44
12 Cadiz 36 11 10 15 -20 43
13 Levante 36 9 13 14 -10 40
14 Valencia 36 9 12 15 -6 39
15 Alaves 36 8 11 17 -22 35
16 Getafe 36 8 10 18 -16 34
17 Huesca 36 7 12 17 -18 33
18 Valladolid 36 5 16 15 -19 31
19 Eibar 36 6 12 18 -19 30
20 Elche 36 6 12 18 -25 30

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Osasuna
Half-time 0–0
Stefan Savić ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
61′
65′
🔁 Roberto Torres
↦ Jony
Renan Lodi 🔁
↦ Hermoso
66′
João Félix 🔁
↦ Saúl
66′
75′
A. Budimir 0–1
Rubén García
Stefan Savić 🟨
76′
76′
🟨 Ante Budimir
76′
ℹ️ Ante Budimir
VAR: Penalty confirmed
77′
🔁 Enric Gallego
↦ A. Budimir
77′
🔁 Lucas Torró
↦ Kike Barja
M. Dembélé 🔁
↦ Á. Correa
80′
H. Herrera 🔁
↦ Llorente
80′
1–1 Renan Lodi
João Félix
82′
84′
🟨 Darko Brašanac
2–1 L. Suárez
Y. Carrasco
88′
Luis Suárez 🟨
89′
G. Kondogbia 🔁
↦ L. Suárez
91′
91′
🔁 E. Ávila
↦ D. Brašanac
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-3-3
13 Jan Oblak G
23 Kieran Trippier D
15 Stefan Savić D
18 Felipe D
22 Mario Hermoso D
14 Marcos Llorente M
6 Koke M
8 Saúl Ñíguez M
10 Ángel Correa F
9 Luis Suárez F
21 Yannick Carrasco F
Bench (10)
1 Ivo Grbić
2 José Giménez
12 Renan Lodi
4 Geoffrey Kondogbia
5 Lucas Torreira
16 Héctor Herrera
20 Vitolo
24 Šime Vrsaljko
7 João Félix
19 Moussa Dembélé

Osasuna

5-4-1
1 Sergio Herrera G
15 Jonas Ramalho D
5 David García D
4 Unai García D
3 Juan Cruz D
14 Rubén García D
11 Kike Barja M
27 Jon Moncayola M
8 Darko Brašanac M
7 Jony M
17 Ante Budimir F
Bench (10)
25 Juan Pérez
39 Manuel Sánchez
12 Facundo Roncaglia
24 Lucas Torró
6 Oier
10 Roberto Torres
21 Iñigo Pérez
28 Javi Martínez
19 Enric Gallego
9 Chimy Ávila

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,24
U
5,97
B
13,72
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,86
U2,5
1,96
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.