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Serie A
Referee: D Massa
Milan
T T S S S
0–0
Full-time
Cagliari
S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Cagliari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
2,5
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,8
This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches
Win Ø 45%
64%
25%
Points per game
2,1
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
67%
42%
Both score Ø 55%
53%
56%
Average goals
3,1
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,1
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,9
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%
20 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 7
1 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 5. · Cagliari 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 37 27 7 3 +50 88
2 Atalanta 37 23 9 5 +45 78
3 Napoli 37 24 4 9 +45 76
4 Juventus 37 22 9 6 +36 75
5 Milan 36 23 6 7 +31 75
6 Lazio 36 21 4 11 +8 67
7 Roma 37 18 7 12 +10 61
8 Sassuolo 37 16 11 10 +6 59
9 Sampdoria 37 14 7 16 -5 49
10 Verona 36 11 10 15 -2 43
11 Bologna 36 10 10 16 -11 40
12 Udinese 37 10 10 17 -12 40
13 Fiorentina 37 9 12 16 -12 39
14 Genoa 37 9 12 16 -12 39
15 Spezia 37 9 11 17 -20 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 9 18 -15 36
17 Torino 36 7 14 15 -19 35
18 Benevento 37 7 11 19 -35 32
19 Crotone 37 6 4 27 -47 22
20 Parma 37 3 11 23 -41 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Cagliari
Simon Kjær 🟨
33′
40′
🟨 Răzvan Marin
45′
🟨 Andrea Carboni
Half-time 0–0
Rafael Leão 🔁
↦ A. Saelemaekers
46′
Samu Castillejo 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
57′
Davide Calabria 🟨
58′
Diogo Dalot 🔁
↦ D. Calabria
63′
S. Meïté 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
63′
78′
🔁 A. Cerri
↦ L. Pavoletti
78′
🔁 A. Duncan
↦ R. Marin
86′
🔁 K. Asamoah
↦ A. Deiola
87′
🔁 R. Klavan
↦ L. Ceppitelli
88′
🔁 D. Rugani
↦ A. Carboni
M. Mandžukić 🔁
↦ H. Çalhanoğlu
89′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
99 Gianluigi Donnarumma G
2 Davide Calabria D
24 Simon Kjær D
23 Fikayo Tomori D
19 Theo Hernández D
4 Ismaël Bennacer M
79 Franck Kessié M
56 Alexis Saelemaekers M
21 Brahim Díaz M
10 Hakan Çalhanoğlu M
12 Ante Rebić F
Bench (12)
1 Ciprian Tătărușanu
5 Diogo Dalot
20 Pierre Kalulu
13 Alessio Romagnoli
7 Samu Castillejo
33 Rade Krunić
27 Daniel Maldini
18 Soualiho Meïté
8 Sandro Tonali
15 Jens Petter Hauge
17 Rafael Leão
9 Mario Mandžukić

Cagliari

3-4-1-2
28 Alessio Cragno G
23 Luca Ceppitelli D
2 Diego Godín D
44 Andrea Carboni D
18 Nahitan Nández M
14 Alessandro Deiola M
8 Răzvan Marin M
22 Charalampos Lykogiannis M
4 Radja Nainggolan F
30 Leonardo Pavoletti F
10 João Pedro F
Bench (12)
1 Simone Aresti
31 Guglielmo Vicario
15 Ragnar Klavan
24 Daniele Rugani
3 Alessandro Tripaldelli
25 Gabriele Zappa
19 Kwadwo Asamoah
17 Matteo Tramoni
32 Alfred Duncan
27 Alberto Cerri
9 Giovanni Simeone
33 Riccardo Sottil

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,42
U ✓
4,79
B
7,46
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,61
U2,5 ✓
2,32
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.