Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Milan
Cagliari
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Inter
|
37 | 27 | 7 | 3 | +50 | 88 |
| 2 |
Atalanta
|
37 | 23 | 9 | 5 | +45 | 78 |
| 3 |
Napoli
|
37 | 24 | 4 | 9 | +45 | 76 |
| 4 |
Juventus
|
37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | +36 | 75 |
| 5 |
Milan
|
36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | +31 | 75 |
| 6 |
Lazio
|
36 | 21 | 4 | 11 | +8 | 67 |
| 7 |
Roma
|
37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | +10 | 61 |
| 8 |
Sassuolo
|
37 | 16 | 11 | 10 | +6 | 59 |
| 9 |
Sampdoria
|
37 | 14 | 7 | 16 | -5 | 49 |
| 10 |
Verona
|
36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | -2 | 43 |
| 11 |
Bologna
|
36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | -11 | 40 |
| 12 |
Udinese
|
37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 40 |
| 13 |
Fiorentina
|
37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | -12 | 39 |
| 14 |
Genoa
|
37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | -12 | 39 |
| 15 |
Spezia
|
37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 38 |
| 16 |
Cagliari
|
36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -15 | 36 |
| 17 |
Torino
|
36 | 7 | 14 | 15 | -19 | 35 |
| 18 |
Benevento
|
37 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -35 | 32 |
| 19 |
Crotone
|
37 | 6 | 4 | 27 | -47 | 22 |
| 20 |
Parma
|
37 | 3 | 11 | 23 | -41 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
Davide Calabria
D
Fikayo Tomori
D
Franck Kessié
M
Alexis Saelemaekers
M
Brahim Díaz
M
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
M
Andrea Carboni
D
Alessandro Deiola
M
Răzvan Marin
M
Charalampos Lykogiannis
M
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Torino
Milan
Juventus
Milan
Milan
Benevento
Lazio
Milan
Milan
Sassuolo
D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.