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Championship
Referee: G Scott
Brentford
S S T S U
1–1
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
1,5
Scored
1,3
0,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,5
This season — Championship · 34/37 matches
Win Ø 40%
53%
27%
Points per game
1,9
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
53%
22%
Both score Ø 47%
56%
38%
Average goals
2,9
1,8
Scored
1,8
0,8
Conceded
1,1
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%
21 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 1
8 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 2
18 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brentford 4. · Nott'm Forest 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Norwich 37 25 7 5 +29 82
2 Watford 37 21 9 7 +26 72
3 Barnsley 35 19 7 9 +12 64
4 Brentford 34 18 9 7 +25 63
5 Swansea 33 18 8 7 +13 62
6 Reading 37 18 7 12 +11 61
7 Bournemouth 36 16 11 9 +19 59
8 Middlesbrough 37 16 8 13 +8 56
9 Cardiff 37 15 10 12 +17 55
10 Millwall 37 11 16 10 +1 49
11 Stoke 37 12 13 12 -1 49
12 QPR 36 13 10 13 -4 49
13 Bristol City 37 15 4 18 -9 49
14 Luton 36 13 8 15 -11 47
15 Blackburn 37 12 9 16 +8 45
16 Preston 37 13 5 19 -9 44
17 Huddersfield 37 11 9 17 -11 42
18 Nott'm Forest 37 10 11 16 -8 41
19 Derby 37 10 10 17 -14 40
20 Coventry 36 9 11 16 -16 38
21 Birmingham 37 9 11 17 -19 38
22 Sheffield Weds 36 9 8 19 -20 35
23 Rotherham 33 9 5 19 -11 32
24 Wycombe 37 6 8 23 -36 26

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brentford Nott'm Forest
1–0 I. Toney
12′
25′
🟨 Alex Mighten
Vitaly Janelt 🟨
26′
Henrik Dalsgaard 🟨
35′
Half-time 1–1
63′
F. Krovinović 1–1
65′
🔁 Yuri Ribeiro
↦ G. Bong
67′
🟨 Cafú
S. Ghoddos 🔁
↦ V. Janelt
70′
T. Fosu 🔁
↦ B. Mbeumo
77′
78′
🟨 Sammy Ameobi
81′
🔁 G. Murray
↦ L. Grabban
E. Marcondes 🔁
↦ M. Jensen
86′
M. Forss 🔁
↦ Sergi Canós
86′
Emiliano Marcondes 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Tobias Figueiredo
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Brentford

4-3-3
1 David Raya G
23 W. Reid D
22 H. Dalsgaard D
18 P. Jansson D
29 M. Sørensen D
6 C. Nørgaard M
7 Sergi Canós F
8 M. Jensen M
27 V. Janelt M
17 I. Toney F
19 B. Mbeumo
Bench (9)
20 S. Ghoddos
24 T. Fosu
9 E. Marcondes
15 M. Forss
31 J. Žambůrek
28 L. Daniels
30 M. Roerslev
41 M. Bidstrup
5 E. Pinnock

Coach: T. Frank

Nott'm Forest

4-2-3-1
30 B. Samba G
13 G. Bong D
2 C. Christie D
3 Tobias Figueiredo D
26 S. McKenna D
11 S. Ameobi M
18 Cafú M
27 F. Krovinović M
37 J. Garner M
7 L. Grabban F
17 A. Mighten M
Bench (9)
5 Yuri Ribeiro
25 G. Murray
22 R. Yates
12 J. Smith
6 L. Mbe Soh
15 L. Freeman
33 L. Taylor
28 A. Knockaert
8 J. Colback

Coach: C. Hughton

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,69
U ✓
3,62
B
5,25
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,19
U2,5 ✓
1,67
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Scott · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.