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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Spezia

T U T U T

2–1

Full-time

Cagliari

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 21%

22%

19%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

74%

41%

Both score Ø 60%

63%

56%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 15. · Cagliari 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	27	20	5	2	+39	65
2	Milan	27	17	5	5	+19	56
3	Juventus	26	16	7	3	+32	55
4	Atalanta	27	15	7	5	+29	52
5	Napoli	26	16	2	8	+27	50
6	Roma	27	15	5	7	+11	50
7	Lazio	26	14	4	8	+5	46
8	Sassuolo	27	10	9	8	+1	39
9	Verona	27	10	8	9	+4	38
10	Bologna	28	9	7	12	-5	34
11	Udinese	27	8	9	10	-5	33
12	Sampdoria	27	9	5	13	-5	32
13	Genoa	28	7	10	11	-10	31
14	Fiorentina	27	7	8	12	-9	29
15	Spezia	27	6	8	13	-16	26
16	Benevento	27	6	8	13	-25	26
17	Torino	26	4	11	11	-10	23
18	Cagliari	27	5	7	15	-16	22
19	Parma	28	3	10	15	-28	19
20	Crotone	28	4	3	21	-38	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	1	1	+22	34
2	Roma	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Juventus	13	10	2	1	+20	32
4	Napoli	13	9	1	3	+22	28
5	Atalanta	14	8	3	3	+18	27
6	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+5	26
7	Milan	14	6	4	4	+5	22
8	Verona	13	6	3	4	+4	21
9	Bologna	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Fiorentina	14	5	5	4	+2	20
11	Sassuolo	13	4	6	3	+1	18
12	Udinese	13	5	3	5	+0	18
13	Sampdoria	13	5	2	6	+0	17
14	Genoa	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Crotone	14	4	1	9	-9	13
16	Cagliari	14	3	3	8	-9	12
17	Spezia	13	2	5	6	-7	11
18	Benevento	14	2	5	7	-15	11
19	Parma	15	2	5	8	-15	11
20	Torino	13	1	7	5	-5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	13	11	1	1	+14	34
2	Inter	14	9	4	1	+17	31
3	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+11	25
4	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+12	23
5	Napoli	13	7	1	5	+5	22
6	Sassuolo	14	6	3	5	+0	21
7	Lazio	13	6	2	5	+0	20
8	Verona	14	4	5	5	+0	17
9	Roma	13	5	2	6	-7	17
10	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-5	15
11	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-5	15
12	Spezia	14	4	3	7	-9	15
13	Benevento	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Torino	13	3	4	6	-5	13
16	Bologna	15	3	4	8	-8	13
17	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-7	10
18	Fiorentina	13	2	3	8	-11	9
19	Parma	13	1	5	7	-13	8
20	Crotone	14	0	2	12	-29	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.