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Super League
Referee: U Schnyder
Lugano
T T S T S
2–1
Full-time
Basel
U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
This season — Super League · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 34%
28%
40%
Points per game
1,3
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
36%
60%
Both score Ø 58%
52%
64%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%
20 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 7
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 6. · Basel 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 24 14 9 1 +21 51
2 Servette 25 10 7 8 -1 37
3 Basel 25 10 6 9 +2 36
4 Lausanne 25 9 7 9 +3 34
5 Zurich 25 9 6 10 +2 33
6 Lugano 25 7 12 6 +2 33
7 St. Gallen 26 8 8 10 -2 32
8 Luzern 25 8 7 10 +2 31
9 Sion 25 5 10 10 -10 25
10 Vaduz 25 5 8 12 -19 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

31. Jan -21 Basel – Lugano 2–2 29. Nov -20 Lugano – Basel 1–0 26. Jul -20 Basel – Lugano 4–4 1. Jul -20 Lugano – Basel 2–1 10. Nov -19 Lugano – Basel 0–3

Match report

Lugano Basel
2′
🟨 Silvan Widmer
Jonathan Sabbatini 🟨
4′
Sandi Lovrić 🟨
15′
22′
⚽ Arthur Cabral 0–1
D. Males
Half-time 0–1
Asumah Abubakar 🔁
↦ Á. Kecskés
46′
1–1 S. Lovric ⚽
Asumah Abubakar
60′
Numa Lavanchy 🟨
71′
2–1 M. Bottani ⚽
S. Lovric
76′
78′
🔁 E. Zhegrova
↦ D. Males
M. Čovilo 🔁
↦ J. Ardaiz
82′
85′
🔁 A. Hunziker
↦ A. Kalulu
85′
🔁 M. Palacios
↦ Y. Marchand
A. Gerndt 🔁
↦ M. Bottani
91′
F. Daprelà 🔁
↦ S. Lovric
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Lugano

3-5-1-1
46 N. Baumann G
33 R. Ziegler D
5 M. Marić D
16 N. Lavanchy M
4 Á. Kecskés D
3 Adrià Guerrero M
14 J. Sabbatini M
20 O. Custodio M
24 S. Lovric M
10 M. Bottani F
23 J. Ardaiz F
Bench (7)
17 Asumah Abubakar
6 M. Čovilo
19 A. Gerndt
30 F. Daprelà
13 L. Opara
77 R. Macek
58 S. Osigwe

Coach: M. Jacobacci

Basel

4-2-3-1
13 H. Lindner G
17 T. Klose D
5 S. Widmer D
28 R. Petretta D
4 E. Cömert D
20 F. Frei M
23 P. Kasami M
26 A. Kalulu M
8 Y. Marchand M
98 Arthur Cabral F
19 D. Males M
Bench (7)
30 E. Zhegrova
32 A. Hunziker
35 M. Palacios
7 L. Zuffi
1 Đ. Nikolić
21 J. van der Werff
3 Gonçalo Cardoso

Coach: C. Sforza

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

U Schnyder · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.