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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos

Ath Madrid

T U T S U

3–1

Full-time

Villarreal

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 44%

42%

46%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

21%

75%

Both score Ø 57%

38%

75%

Average goals

1,8

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

16 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 6. · Villarreal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	17	4	4	+33	55
2	Real Madrid	25	15	8	2	+29	53
3	Sevilla	25	12	7	6	+9	43
4	Getafe	25	12	6	7	+11	42
5	Sociedad	24	12	4	8	+11	40
6	Ath Madrid	24	10	10	4	+8	40
7	Villarreal	24	11	5	8	+10	38
8	Valencia	25	10	8	7	-2	38
9	Granada	25	11	3	11	+1	36
10	Levante	25	10	2	13	-5	32
11	Ath Bilbao	25	7	10	8	+2	31
12	Osasuna	25	7	10	8	-4	31
13	Betis	25	7	9	9	-5	30
14	Alaves	25	8	6	11	-8	30
15	Valladolid	25	6	11	8	-6	29
16	Celta	25	5	9	11	-12	24
17	Eibar	24	6	6	12	-15	24
18	Mallorca	25	6	4	15	-16	22
19	Leganes	25	4	7	14	-19	19
20	Espanol	25	4	7	14	-22	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	12	1	0	+32	37
2	Real Madrid	12	8	4	0	+16	28
3	Valencia	13	7	6	0	+10	27
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	4	1	+9	25
5	Granada	12	8	1	3	+8	25
6	Getafe	13	7	3	3	+8	24
7	Sociedad	12	7	2	3	+14	23
8	Levante	12	7	2	3	+7	23
9	Villarreal	12	6	4	2	+10	22
10	Alaves	13	6	4	3	+7	22
11	Ath Bilbao	12	6	3	3	+7	21
12	Betis	13	6	3	4	+5	21
13	Sevilla	12	5	5	2	+5	20
14	Mallorca	13	6	2	5	+3	20
15	Osasuna	13	4	5	4	-1	17
16	Celta	13	4	5	4	-2	17
17	Valladolid	12	3	7	2	+4	16
18	Eibar	11	5	1	5	-2	16
19	Leganes	13	4	2	7	-6	14
20	Espanol	12	1	4	7	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	7	4	2	+13	25
2	Sevilla	13	7	2	4	+4	23
3	Getafe	12	5	3	4	+3	18
4	Barcelona	12	5	3	4	+1	18
5	Sociedad	12	5	2	5	-3	17
6	Villarreal	12	5	1	6	+0	16
7	Ath Madrid	12	3	6	3	-1	15
8	Osasuna	12	3	5	4	-3	14
9	Valladolid	13	3	4	6	-10	13
10	Espanol	13	3	3	7	-10	12
11	Granada	13	3	2	8	-7	11
12	Valencia	12	3	2	7	-12	11
13	Ath Bilbao	13	1	7	5	-5	10
14	Betis	12	1	6	5	-10	9
15	Levante	13	3	0	10	-12	9
16	Eibar	13	1	5	7	-13	8
17	Alaves	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Celta	12	1	4	7	-10	7
19	Leganes	12	0	5	7	-13	5
20	Mallorca	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.