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La Liga

Referee: David Fernandez Borbalan

Villarreal

U S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,0

This season — La Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 57%

46%

68%

Points per game

1,6

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

46%

32%

Both score Ø 36%

43%

29%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,1

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Villarreal 6. · Ath Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	23	6	0	+61	75
2	Ath Madrid	28	19	7	2	+36	64
3	Valencia	29	18	5	6	+26	59
4	Real Madrid	28	17	6	5	+37	57
5	Sevilla	29	14	3	12	-7	45
6	Villarreal	28	13	5	10	+6	44
7	Girona	28	12	7	9	+4	43
8	Betis	29	13	4	12	-4	43
9	Getafe	29	10	9	10	+8	39
10	Eibar	29	11	6	12	-7	39
11	Celta	28	11	5	12	+3	38
12	Leganes	29	10	6	13	-10	36
13	Ath Bilbao	29	8	11	10	-4	35
14	Espanol	29	8	11	10	-11	35
15	Sociedad	29	9	6	14	-1	33
16	Alaves	29	10	1	18	-19	31
17	Levante	29	5	12	12	-18	27
18	Las Palmas	29	5	6	18	-37	21
19	La Coruna	29	4	8	17	-34	20
20	Malaga	28	3	4	21	-29	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	12	2	0	+34	38
2	Valencia	15	11	2	2	+19	35
3	Ath Madrid	14	10	4	0	+20	34
4	Real Madrid	14	9	2	3	+24	29
5	Getafe	15	8	3	4	+14	27
6	Sevilla	14	8	3	3	+6	27
7	Girona	14	8	2	4	+11	26
8	Espanol	15	7	4	4	+2	25
9	Eibar	15	7	3	5	+8	24
10	Leganes	14	7	3	4	+2	24
11	Betis	15	7	3	5	+0	24
12	Villarreal	13	7	2	4	+9	23
13	Celta	13	6	4	3	+5	22
14	Ath Bilbao	14	5	7	2	+5	22
15	Alaves	15	7	1	7	-4	22
16	Sociedad	15	6	3	6	+7	21
17	Levante	15	3	6	6	-7	15
18	La Coruna	15	3	5	7	-8	14
19	Las Palmas	14	4	2	8	-13	14
20	Malaga	14	2	3	9	-11	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	11	4	0	+27	37
2	Ath Madrid	14	9	3	2	+16	30
3	Real Madrid	14	8	4	2	+13	28
4	Valencia	14	7	3	4	+7	24
5	Villarreal	15	6	3	6	-3	21
6	Betis	14	6	1	7	-4	19
7	Sevilla	15	6	0	9	-13	18
8	Girona	14	4	5	5	-7	17
9	Celta	15	5	1	9	-2	16
10	Eibar	14	4	3	7	-15	15
11	Ath Bilbao	15	3	4	8	-9	13
12	Getafe	14	2	6	6	-6	12
13	Sociedad	14	3	3	8	-8	12
14	Levante	14	2	6	6	-11	12
15	Leganes	15	3	3	9	-12	12
16	Espanol	14	1	7	6	-13	10
17	Alaves	14	3	0	11	-15	9
18	Las Palmas	15	1	4	10	-24	7
19	La Coruna	14	1	3	10	-26	6
20	Malaga	14	1	1	12	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.