Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Lugo
Oviedo
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cadiz
|
29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |
Zaragoza
|
28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | +12 | 48 |
| 3 |
Almeria
|
29 | 12 | 11 | 6 | +16 | 47 |
| 4 |
Huesca
|
28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | +7 | 46 |
| 5 |
Girona
|
29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 45 |
| 6 |
Elche
|
29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | +5 | 40 |
| 7 |
Fuenlabrada
|
29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | +2 | 39 |
| 8 |
Numancia
|
29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | +3 | 38 |
| 9 |
Alcorcon
|
29 | 8 | 14 | 7 | +1 | 38 |
| 10 |
Mirandes
|
28 | 8 | 14 | 6 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |
Sp Gijon
|
29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 38 |
| 12 |
Ponferradina
|
29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | +2 | 37 |
| 13 |
Las Palmas
|
29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 37 |
| 14 |
Vallecano
|
27 | 7 | 15 | 5 | +5 | 36 |
| 15 |
Tenerife
|
29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | +0 | 36 |
| 16 |
Malaga
|
28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 17 |
La Coruna
|
28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | -12 | 34 |
| 18 |
Albacete
|
28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 33 |
| 19 |
Oviedo
|
28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -7 | 29 |
| 20 |
Lugo
|
28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -13 | 29 |
| 21 | Extremadura UD | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | -13 | 27 |
| 22 |
Santander
|
28 | 3 | 15 | 10 | -8 | 24 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Fuenlabrada
Lugo
Lugo
Elche
Lugo
Huesca
Lugo
Lugo
Albacete
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.