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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Freiburg

T T S S S

2–2

Full-time

Leverkusen

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 55%

48%

61%

Points per game

1,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

65%

58%

Both score Ø 60%

52%

68%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,78 xG 0,33

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 5. · Leverkusen 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	23	7	2	+61	+53.4	76
2	Leverkusen	31	19	10	2	+31	+22.6	67
3	Ein Frankfurt	31	16	7	8	+20	+14.5	55
4	Dortmund	32	15	6	11	+15	+19.2	51
5	Freiburg	31	15	6	10	-3	+1.4	51
6	RB Leipzig	32	13	11	8	+6	-6.9	50
7	Mainz	31	13	8	10	+9	-1.2	47
8	Werder Bremen	32	13	8	11	-6	+1.8	47
9	M'gladbach	32	13	6	13	+1	-9.9	45
10	Stuttgart	32	12	8	12	+6	+11.5	44
11	Augsburg	32	11	10	11	-11	-12.3	43
12	Wolfsburg	32	10	9	13	+1	-4.9	39
13	Union Berlin	32	9	11	12	-12	-9.7	38
14	St Pauli	32	8	7	17	-11	-10.2	31
15	Hoffenheim	32	7	10	15	-18	-14.0	31
16	Heidenheim	32	7	5	20	-27	-15.8	26
17	Holstein Kiel	32	6	7	19	-27	-18.6	25
18	Bochum	32	4	8	20	-35	-20.9	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+35	+33.8	41
2	Leverkusen	16	10	4	2	+16	+15.3	34
3	Dortmund	16	10	3	3	+22	+16.2	33
4	Ein Frankfurt	16	10	3	3	+19	+17.0	33
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	6	2	+11	+3.2	30
6	Freiburg	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.6	29
7	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.9	24
8	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+4	-0.8	24
9	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-1	+2.6	23
10	Union Berlin	16	5	7	4	+0	+2.1	22
11	Stuttgart	16	6	2	8	+4	+12.0	20
12	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-5	+4.5	20
13	Hoffenheim	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Wolfsburg	16	3	6	7	-3	+0.1	15
15	St Pauli	16	3	5	8	-7	-1.0	14
16	Holstein Kiel	16	4	2	10	-16	-6.4	14
17	Bochum	16	3	4	9	-14	-2.9	13
18	Heidenheim	16	3	2	11	-17	-7.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	10	5	1	+26	+19.6	35
2	Leverkusen	15	9	6	0	+15	+7.3	33
3	Werder Bremen	16	8	3	5	-1	-2.7	27
4	Wolfsburg	16	7	3	6	+4	-5.1	24
5	Stuttgart	16	6	6	4	+2	-0.5	24
6	Mainz	16	7	2	7	+3	-6.1	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+1	-2.5	22
8	Freiburg	16	6	4	6	-11	-0.1	22
9	M'gladbach	16	6	3	7	-3	-9.1	21
10	RB Leipzig	16	5	5	6	-5	-10.1	20
11	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	-10	-15.0	20
12	Dortmund	16	5	3	8	-7	+2.9	18
13	St Pauli	16	5	2	9	-4	-9.1	17
14	Union Berlin	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.8	16
15	Heidenheim	16	4	3	9	-10	-8.6	15
16	Hoffenheim	16	3	5	8	-11	-10.6	14
17	Holstein Kiel	16	2	5	9	-11	-12.1	11
18	Bochum	16	1	4	11	-21	-17.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.