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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Bayern Munich

S T U U S

3–0

Full-time

Mainz

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,0

3,3

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 58%

73%

43%

Points per game

2,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

77%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

53%

Average goals

3,9

2,8

Scored

2,9

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,10 xG 0,67

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Mainz 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	22	6	2	+58	+52.3	72
2	Leverkusen	30	18	10	2	+29	+22.5	64
3	Ein Frankfurt	30	15	7	8	+16	+12.7	52
4	RB Leipzig	30	13	10	7	+10	-4.5	49
5	Freiburg	30	14	6	10	-4	+0.0	48
6	Mainz	30	13	8	9	+12	-0.8	47
7	Dortmund	30	13	6	11	+10	+16.3	45
8	Werder Bremen	30	13	6	11	-6	+1.2	45
9	M'gladbach	30	13	5	12	+2	-7.7	44
10	Augsburg	30	11	10	9	-7	-13.3	43
11	Stuttgart	31	11	8	12	+5	+8.9	41
12	Wolfsburg	30	10	9	11	+6	-1.8	39
13	Union Berlin	30	9	9	12	-12	-8.5	36
14	St Pauli	30	8	6	16	-10	-6.9	30
15	Hoffenheim	30	7	9	14	-17	-13.3	30
16	Heidenheim	31	7	4	20	-27	-15.0	25
17	Holstein Kiel	30	4	7	19	-30	-19.3	19
18	Bochum	30	4	6	20	-35	-22.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	2	1	+32	+33.3	38
2	Leverkusen	15	9	4	2	+14	+15.2	31
3	Dortmund	15	9	3	3	+18	+14.5	30
4	Ein Frankfurt	15	9	3	3	+15	+15.2	30
5	RB Leipzig	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.8	29
6	Freiburg	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.6	29
7	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.9	24
8	M'gladbach	15	7	2	6	+4	-0.4	23
9	Augsburg	15	6	5	4	+1	+1.6	23
10	Union Berlin	15	5	6	4	+0	+2.1	21
11	Stuttgart	16	6	2	8	+4	+12.0	20
12	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-5	+3.9	19
13	Hoffenheim	15	4	5	6	-6	-2.3	17
14	Wolfsburg	15	3	6	6	-2	+1.5	15
15	St Pauli	15	3	5	7	-6	+1.6	14
16	Bochum	15	3	3	9	-14	-4.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	15	3	2	10	-17	-8.2	11
18	Heidenheim	15	3	1	11	-17	-6.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	4	1	+26	+18.9	34
2	Leverkusen	15	9	6	0	+15	+7.3	33
3	Werder Bremen	15	8	2	5	-1	-2.7	26
4	Wolfsburg	15	7	3	5	+8	-3.3	24
5	Mainz	15	7	2	6	+6	-5.7	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+1	-2.5	22
7	Stuttgart	15	5	6	4	+1	-3.1	21
8	M'gladbach	15	6	3	6	-2	-7.3	21
9	RB Leipzig	15	5	5	5	-1	-8.3	20
10	Augsburg	15	5	5	5	-8	-14.9	20
11	Freiburg	15	5	4	6	-12	-1.5	19
12	St Pauli	15	5	1	9	-4	-8.5	16
13	Dortmund	15	4	3	8	-8	+1.8	15
14	Heidenheim	16	4	3	9	-10	-8.6	15
15	Union Berlin	15	4	3	8	-12	-10.5	15
16	Hoffenheim	15	3	4	8	-11	-11.0	13
17	Holstein Kiel	15	1	5	9	-13	-11.1	8
18	Bochum	15	1	3	11	-21	-18.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.