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DFB-Pokal
Referee: S Jablonski
Stuttgart
U T U T T
3–1
Full-time
RB Leipzig
S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,5
1,8
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
2,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — DFB-Pokal · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
75%
75%
Both score Ø 38%
25%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,8
Scored
2,8
3,0
Conceded
0,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+2,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%
9 Shots 25
6 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 12
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 5
4 Offside 4
8 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stuttgart 2. · RB Leipzig 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bielefeld 5 5 0 0 +8 15
2 Stuttgart 4 4 0 0 +10 12
3 RB Leipzig 4 4 0 0 +9 12
4 Leverkusen 5 4 0 1 +5 12
5 FC Koln 4 3 0 1 +4 9
6 Wolfsburg 4 3 0 1 +4 9
7 Werder Bremen 4 3 0 1 +3 9
8 Karlsruhe 3 2 1 0 +7 7
9 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 +5 7
10 Bayern Munich 3 2 0 1 +7 6
11 Hertha 3 2 0 1 +4 6
12 Freiburg 3 2 0 1 +3 6
13 Darmstadt 3 2 0 1 +2 6
14 Ein Frankfurt 3 2 0 1 +1 6
15 Regensburg 3 2 0 1 -1 6
16 Hoffenheim 3 1 1 1 -2 4
17 Hamburg 2 1 0 1 +5 3
18 Elversberg 2 1 0 1 +4 3
19 Heidenheim 2 1 0 1 +3 3
20 Paderborn 2 1 0 1 +3 3
21 Dortmund 2 1 0 1 +2 3
22 M'gladbach 2 1 0 1 +1 3
23 Dresden 2 1 0 1 +1 3
24 Greuther Furth 2 1 0 1 +1 3
25 Kaiserslautern 2 1 0 1 +0 3
26 St Pauli 2 1 0 1 -1 3
27 Schalke 04 2 1 0 1 -1 3
28 Kickers Offenbach 2 1 0 1 -1 3
29 Union Berlin 2 1 0 1 -1 3
30 Mainz 2 1 0 1 -2 3
31 Holstein Kiel 2 1 0 1 -2 3
32 Wurzburger Kickers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
33 FC Saarbrücken 1 0 1 0 +0 1
34 Nurnberg 2 0 1 1 -1 1
35 Sandhausen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
36 Hallescher FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Alemannia Aachen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 FC Ingolstadt 04 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Magdeburg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
40 Bochum 1 0 0 1 -1 0
41 Carl Zeiss Jena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
42 Greifswalder FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
43 TuS Koblenz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
44 Erzgebirge Aue 1 0 0 1 -2 0
45 Wehen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
46 Cottbus 1 0 0 1 -2 0
47 Teutonia Ottensen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
48 Hannover 1 0 0 1 -2 0
49 Fortuna Dusseldorf 1 0 0 1 -2 0
50 Schott Mainz 1 0 0 1 -2 0
51 VfR Aalen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
52 Braunschweig 1 0 0 1 -3 0
53 Rot-Weiß Essen 1 0 0 1 -3 0
54 Viktoria Berlin 1 0 0 1 -3 0
55 Phönix Lübeck 1 0 0 1 -3 0
56 Hansa Rostock 1 0 0 1 -4 0
57 Osnabruck 1 0 0 1 -4 0
58 Ulm 1 0 0 1 -4 0
59 Bremer Sv 1 0 0 1 -4 0
60 FC 08 Villingen 1 0 0 1 -4 0
61 Preußen Münster 1 0 0 1 -5 0
62 Sportfreunde Lotte 1 0 0 1 -5 0
63 SV Meppen 1 0 0 1 -6 0
64 Borussia Hildesheim 1 0 0 1 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stuttgart RB Leipzig
1–0 A. Stiller
5′
36′
🟨 Nicolas Seiwald
Half-time 2–0
2–0 N. Woltemade
E. Demirović
57′
62′
B. Šeško 2–1
W. Orbán
70′
🔁 C. Baumgartner
↦ K. Nedeljković
73′
🟨 David Raum
3–1 J. Leweling
73′
L. Stergiou 🔁
↦ J. Leweling
76′
F. Rieder 🔁
↦ E. Millot
76′
80′
🔁 T. Gomis
↦ R. Baku
E. Touré 🔁
↦ E. Demirović
92′
96′
🟨 Xavi Simons
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Stuttgart

5-3-2
33 A. Nübel G
18 J. Leweling D
29 F. Jeltsch D
24 J. Chabot D
2 A. Al Dakhil D
7 M. Mittelstädt D
16 A. Karazor M
6 A. Stiller M
8 E. Millot M
9 E. Demirović F
11 N. Woltemade F
Bench (9)
20 L. Stergiou
32 F. Rieder
10 E. Touré
27 C. Führich
1 F. Bredlow
26 D. Undav
14 L. Jaquez
15 P. Stenzel
5 Y. Keitel

Coach: S. Hoeneß

RB Leipzig

4-4-2
26 M. Vandevoordt G
21 K. Nedeljković D
4 W. Orbán D
5 E. Bitshiabu D
22 D. Raum D
17 R. Baku M
18 A. Vermeeren M
13 N. Seiwald M
10 X. Simons M
30 B. Šeško F
11 L. Openda F
Bench (9)
14 C. Baumgartner
27 T. Gomis
9 Y. Poulsen
3 L. Geertruida
8 A. Haidara
47 V. Gebel
16 L. Klostermann
1 P. Gulácsi
23 C. Lukeba

Coach: Z. Löw

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Jablonski · 136 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.