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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

M'gladbach

S U S T S

1–3

Full-time

Mainz

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

46%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

63%

46%

Both score Ø 55%

63%

46%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,29 xG 1,89

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 8. · Mainz 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	19	4	1	+52	+42.8	61
2	Leverkusen	24	15	8	1	+27	+22.0	53
3	Ein Frankfurt	24	12	6	6	+13	+6.6	42
4	Mainz	24	12	5	7	+14	+1.5	41
5	Freiburg	24	12	4	8	-2	+0.1	40
6	RB Leipzig	24	10	8	6	+6	-5.2	38
7	Wolfsburg	24	10	7	7	+10	-2.2	37
8	M'gladbach	24	11	4	9	+3	-5.2	37
9	Stuttgart	24	10	6	8	+5	+8.7	36
10	Dortmund	24	10	5	9	+7	+10.6	35
11	Augsburg	24	8	8	8	-8	-7.4	32
12	Werder Bremen	24	8	6	10	-13	-2.0	30
13	Hoffenheim	24	6	7	11	-15	-12.5	25
14	Union Berlin	24	6	6	12	-15	-6.1	24
15	St Pauli	24	6	3	15	-11	-8.1	21
16	Holstein Kiel	24	4	4	16	-24	-16.4	16
17	Heidenheim	24	4	3	17	-23	-10.5	15
18	Bochum	24	3	6	15	-26	-16.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	11	1	0	+32	+29.0	34
2	Leverkusen	12	8	3	1	+14	+13.3	27
3	Freiburg	11	8	1	2	+11	+4.6	25
4	Dortmund	12	7	3	2	+16	+11.5	24
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	7	3	2	+12	+9.8	24
6	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+7	+3.1	22
7	Mainz	12	6	3	3	+6	+5.3	21
8	Stuttgart	13	6	2	5	+7	+9.9	20
9	M'gladbach	12	6	2	4	+6	+0.5	20
10	Augsburg	12	5	4	3	+2	+3.8	19
11	Union Berlin	12	4	4	4	-1	+3.1	16
12	Wolfsburg	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.9	14
13	Werder Bremen	12	3	4	5	-6	+1.3	13
14	Bochum	12	3	3	6	-7	-2.7	12
15	Hoffenheim	12	3	3	6	-8	-3.8	12
16	Holstein Kiel	12	3	1	8	-13	-7.1	10
17	St Pauli	12	2	3	7	-7	-1.8	9
18	Heidenheim	12	2	1	9	-14	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	3	1	+20	+13.8	27
2	Leverkusen	12	7	5	0	+13	+8.7	26
3	Wolfsburg	12	7	2	3	+10	-3.1	23
4	Mainz	12	6	2	4	+8	-3.8	20
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	3	4	+1	-3.3	18
6	M'gladbach	12	5	2	5	-3	-5.7	17
7	Werder Bremen	12	5	2	5	-7	-3.3	17
8	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	-1	-8.3	16
9	Stuttgart	11	4	4	3	-2	-1.2	16
10	Freiburg	13	4	3	6	-13	-4.4	15
11	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-7	-8.8	13
12	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-10	-11.3	13
13	St Pauli	12	4	0	8	-4	-6.3	12
14	Dortmund	12	3	2	7	-9	-0.9	11
15	Heidenheim	12	2	2	8	-9	-5.8	8
16	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-14	-9.2	8
17	Holstein Kiel	12	1	3	8	-11	-9.3	6
18	Bochum	12	0	3	9	-19	-14.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.