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Bundesliga
Referee: B Brand
Stuttgart
T S S T U
1–3
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,2
Scored
1,2
2,3
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 61%
43%
78%
Points per game
1,6
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
70%
74%
Both score Ø 59%
70%
48%
Average goals
3,3
3,8
Scored
1,8
3,0
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,89 xG 2,19
53% Possession 47%
12 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 6
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 13
5 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stuttgart 7. · Bayern Munich 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 23 18 4 1 +50 +41.5 58
2 Leverkusen 23 14 8 1 +24 +20.9 50
3 Ein Frankfurt 23 12 6 5 +16 +7.7 42
4 Freiburg 23 12 3 8 -2 +0.8 39
5 Mainz 23 11 5 7 +13 +1.4 38
6 RB Leipzig 23 10 8 5 +7 -5.1 38
7 Stuttgart 23 10 6 7 +7 +10.0 36
8 Wolfsburg 23 9 7 7 +9 -1.2 34
9 M'gladbach 23 10 4 9 +0 -5.3 34
10 Dortmund 23 9 5 9 +5 +9.3 32
11 Augsburg 23 8 7 8 -8 -8.1 31
12 Werder Bremen 23 8 6 9 -12 -3.0 30
13 Union Berlin 23 6 6 11 -14 -6.3 24
14 Hoffenheim 23 5 7 11 -16 -12.2 22
15 St Pauli 23 6 3 14 -9 -6.8 21
16 Heidenheim 23 4 3 16 -20 -10.4 15
17 Bochum 23 3 6 14 -25 -17.1 15
18 Holstein Kiel 23 3 4 16 -25 -16.2 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stuttgart Bayern Munich
1–0 A. Stiller
J. Vagnoman
34′
Finn Jeltsch 🟨
39′
Julian Chabot 🟨
42′
45′
M. Olise 1–1
L. Sané
Half-time 1–1
Chris Führich 🟨
48′
59′
🟨 Konrad Laimer
62′
🔁 K. Coman
↦ L. Sané
64′
L. Goretzka 1–2
66′
🟨 Leon Goretzka
E. Millot 🔁
↦ J. Leweling
70′
R. Hendriks 🔁
↦ J. Chabot
70′
76′
🔁 J. Stanišić
↦ K. Laimer
J. Bruun Larsen 🔁
↦ C. Führich
81′
E. Demirović 🔁
↦ A. Karazor
81′
87′
🔁 H. Ito
↦ A. Davies
87′
🔁 T. Müller
↦ J. Musiala
87′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ M. Olise
90′
K. Coman 1–3
Enzo Millot 🟨
93′
93′
🟨 Harry Kane
Ermedin Demirović 🟨
97′
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Stuttgart

4-2-2-2
33 A. Nübel G
4 J. Vagnoman D
29 F. Jeltsch D
24 J. Chabot D
7 M. Mittelstädt D
16 A. Karazor M
6 A. Stiller M
18 J. Leweling M
27 C. Führich M
26 D. Undav F
11 N. Woltemade F
Bench (9)
8 E. Millot
3 R. Hendriks
25 J. Bruun Larsen
9 E. Demirović
14 L. Jaquez
32 F. Rieder
1 F. Bredlow
15 P. Stenzel
5 Y. Keitel

Coach: S. Hoeneß

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
27 K. Laimer D
15 E. Dier D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
19 A. Davies D
8 L. Goretzka M
16 João Palhinha M
17 M. Olise M
42 J. Musiala M
10 L. Sané M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
11 K. Coman
44 J. Stanišić
21 H. Ito
25 T. Müller
7 S. Gnabry
24 G. Vidović
40 J. Urbig
22 Raphaël Guerreiro
2 D. Upamecano

Coach: V. Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,85
U
4,29
B ✓
1,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,54
U2,5
2,49
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Brand · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.