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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Holstein Kiel

T T T S T

0–3

Full-time

Mainz

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

10%

30%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

70%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

70%

60%

Average goals

3,7

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,43 xG 2,32

38% Possession 62%

7 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 17. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	2	0	+29	+20.3	29
2	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	2	2	+11	+2.1	23
3	RB Leipzig	11	6	3	2	+9	+0.1	21
4	Leverkusen	11	5	5	1	+8	+10.7	20
5	Dortmund	11	6	1	4	+4	+4.0	19
6	Freiburg	11	5	2	4	-2	+5.0	17
7	Stuttgart	11	4	4	3	+2	+3.7	16
8	Union Berlin	11	4	4	3	+0	-3.3	16
9	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	+2	-2.0	15
10	Werder Bremen	11	4	3	4	-5	-0.3	15
11	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+1	+1.0	14
12	Mainz	10	3	4	3	+1	-3.4	13
13	Hoffenheim	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.8	12
14	Augsburg	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.9	12
15	Heidenheim	11	3	1	7	-5	+0.9	10
16	St Pauli	10	2	2	6	-5	-5.3	8
17	Holstein Kiel	10	1	2	7	-13	-7.8	5
18	Bochum	11	0	2	9	-22	-12.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	6	0	0	+12	+8.0	18
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+12	+10.4	13
3	Ein Frankfurt	5	4	1	0	+10	+3.7	13
4	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+7	+2.4	11
5	Stuttgart	6	3	2	1	+6	+8.8	11
6	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+7.9	11
7	Augsburg	6	3	2	1	+3	+4.2	11
8	Union Berlin	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
9	Freiburg	5	3	1	1	+2	+4.6	10
10	M'gladbach	5	3	0	2	+2	+1.1	9
11	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	-2	-3.0	9
12	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.1	5
13	Mainz	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5
14	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-5	-1.9	5
15	Heidenheim	5	1	1	3	-2	+3.0	4
16	Holstein Kiel	5	1	0	4	-10	-4.0	3
17	St Pauli	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.6	2
18	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+17	+9.8	16
2	Wolfsburg	5	3	1	1	+5	-0.9	10
3	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+2	-2.3	10
4	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.7	10
5	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.6	10
6	Leverkusen	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.8	9
7	Mainz	4	2	2	0	+4	-3.4	8
8	Freiburg	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.4	7
9	St Pauli	5	2	0	3	+1	-4.8	6
10	Heidenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
11	M'gladbach	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
12	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.1	5
13	Stuttgart	5	1	2	2	-4	-5.1	5
14	Hoffenheim	5	0	3	2	-3	-4.9	3
15	Holstein Kiel	5	0	2	3	-3	-3.8	2
16	Dortmund	5	0	1	4	-8	-4.0	1
17	Augsburg	5	0	1	4	-13	-9.1	1
18	Bochum	6	0	0	6	-13	-7.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.