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Taça de Portugal
Referee: João Pinto
SC Covilha
T U T S S
2–3
Full-time
Rebordosa
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

SC Covilha Rebordosa
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches
Win Ø 62%
40%
83%
Points per game
1,4
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 82%
80%
83%
Both score Ø 54%
40%
67%
Average goals
3,4
3,3
Scored
1,6
2,2
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,0
This season — Taça de Portugal · 2/3 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
4,5
3,0
Scored
3,5
2,3
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match SC Covilha 13. · Rebordosa 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 São João Ver 4 3 1 0 +6 10
2 Cinfães 3 3 0 0 +5 9
3 Rebordosa 3 3 0 0 +5 9
4 Amarante 4 3 0 1 +4 9
5 Tirsense 3 3 0 0 +4 9
6 Lusitânia 4 3 0 1 +1 9
7 Alverca 3 2 1 0 +4 7
8 Brito 4 2 1 1 +1 7
9 Vila Real 4 2 1 1 +1 7
10 Benfica 2 2 0 0 +9 6
11 Casa Pia 2 2 0 0 +8 6
12 Sp Lisbon 2 2 0 0 +7 6
13 SC Covilha 2 2 0 0 +5 6
14 Guimaraes 2 2 0 0 +4 6
15 Varzim 2 2 0 0 +4 6
16 Gil Vicente 2 2 0 0 +4 6
17 Anadia 3 2 0 1 +3 6
18 Moncarapachense 3 2 0 1 +3 6
19 Farense 2 2 0 0 +3 6
20 Sp Braga 2 2 0 0 +3 6
21 Oliveira Hospital 2 2 0 0 +3 6
22 União Santarém 3 2 0 1 +2 6
23 Moura 3 2 0 1 +2 6
24 CF Os Belenenses 3 2 0 1 +2 6
25 União de Leiria 3 2 0 1 +1 6
26 Chaves 3 2 0 1 +1 6
27 Lusitânia Lourosa 3 2 0 1 +0 6
28 Leixoes 3 2 0 1 +0 6
29 Maria da Fonte 3 2 0 1 -3 6
30 Lusitano Évora 1911 3 1 2 0 +1 5
31 Sanjoanense 3 1 1 1 +3 4
32 Rio Ave 2 1 1 0 +2 4
33 Operário 2 1 1 0 +2 4
34 O Elvas 2 1 1 0 +1 4
35 Caldas 3 1 1 1 +0 4
36 Arouca 2 1 0 1 +4 3
37 FC Serpa 2 1 0 1 +4 3
38 Porto 1 1 0 0 +3 3
39 Penafiel 2 1 0 1 +2 3
40 Alcains 2 1 0 1 +2 3
41 Louletano 2 1 0 1 +2 3
42 Alpendorada 2 1 0 1 +2 3
43 Arronches e Benfica 2 1 0 1 +2 3
44 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +2 3
45 Portimonense 2 1 0 1 +1 3
46 AVS 2 1 0 1 +1 3
47 Atlético CP 2 1 0 1 +1 3
48 Estrela Vendas Novas 2 1 0 1 +1 3
49 Machico 2 1 0 1 +1 3
50 Ferreira Zêzere 2 1 0 1 +1 3
51 Academica 2 1 0 1 +1 3
52 Moreirense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
53 Santa Clara 1 1 0 0 +1 3
54 Vilaverdense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
55 Os Limianos 2 1 0 1 +0 3
56 Guarda 2 1 0 1 +0 3
57 Sertanense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
58 Pacos Ferreira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
59 Torreense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Régua 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 1º Dezembro 2 1 0 1 +0 3
62 Os Marialvas 2 1 0 1 +0 3
63 Mortágua 2 1 0 1 +0 3
64 Aliança de Gandra 2 1 0 1 +0 3
65 Vieira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
66 Mafra 2 1 0 1 +0 3
67 Lagoa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
68 Gondomar 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Vianense 2 1 0 1 -1 3
70 Pevidem 2 1 0 1 -1 3
71 Atlético Arcos 2 1 0 1 -1 3
72 Sandinenses 2 1 0 1 -1 3
73 CF Benfica 2 1 0 1 -2 3
74 Paredes 2 1 0 1 -2 3
75 Pombal 2 1 0 1 -2 3
76 Sintrense 2 1 0 1 -2 3
77 Pêro Pinheiro 2 1 0 1 -2 3
78 Amora 2 1 0 1 -4 3
79 Estrela 2 1 0 1 -5 3
80 Lajense 3 1 0 2 -5 3
81 AD Marco 09 2 0 2 0 +0 2
82 Leça 1 0 1 0 +0 1
83 Beira-Mar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
84 Academico Viseu 1 0 1 0 +0 1
85 Ovarense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
86 Marinhense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
87 Estoril 1 0 1 0 +0 1
88 Joane 1 0 1 0 +0 1
89 Fátima 1 0 1 0 +0 1
90 União de Coimbra 2 0 1 1 -2 1
91 Estarreja 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Comércio Indústria 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Dumiense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 FC Barreirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Coimbrões 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Bragança 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Cardielense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Nacional 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 Monção 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Oliveirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
103 Maia Lidador 1 0 0 1 -1 0
104 Fabril Barreiro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
105 São Roque (Açores) 1 0 0 1 -1 0
106 Tondela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
107 União Lamas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
108 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
109 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
110 Salgueiros 1 0 0 1 -1 0
111 Viana Alentejo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
112 Velense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
113 Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol 1 0 0 1 -1 0
114 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
115 Boavista 1 0 0 1 -1 0
116 Portel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
117 Felgueiras 1932 1 0 0 1 -1 0
118 UD da Serra 1 0 0 1 -1 0
119 Valpaços 1 0 0 1 -2 0
120 Vila Cortez 1 0 0 1 -2 0
121 Castrense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
122 Pedrógão São Pedro 1 0 0 1 -2 0
123 Benfica Castelo Branco 1 0 0 1 -2 0
124 Madalena 1 0 0 1 -2 0
125 Camacha 1 0 0 1 -2 0
126 Sacavenense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
127 Peniche 1 0 0 1 -2 0
128 Abrantes e Benfica 1 0 0 1 -2 0
129 Pedras Salgadas 1 0 0 1 -2 0
130 Académico do Fundão 1 0 0 1 -2 0
131 Eléctrico 1 0 0 1 -2 0
132 Fafe 1 0 0 1 -3 0
133 Tocha 1 0 0 1 -3 0
134 Vieirense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
135 Juventude Gaula 1 0 0 1 -3 0
136 O Grandolense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
137 Gavionenses 1 0 0 1 -3 0
138 Ferreiras 1 0 0 1 -3 0
139 Trofense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
140 Rabo Peixe 1 0 0 1 -3 0
141 Macedo Cavaleiros 1 0 0 1 -3 0
142 Lagos 1 0 0 1 -3 0
143 Resende 1 0 0 1 -3 0
144 Oliveira de Frades 1 0 0 1 -3 0
145 Ginásio Figueirense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
146 Praia Milfontes 1 0 0 1 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

SC Covilha Rebordosa
2′
Pipo 0–1
27′
Pipo 0–2
1–2 Lucas Duarte
34′
35′
🟨 E. Leal
39′
🟨 L. Goncalves
Half-time 1–2
Zé Simão 🔁
↦ Tiago Caveira
46′
56′
🟨 Ventura
Paulinho 🔁
↦ Guilherme Paula
58′
D. Ramalho 🟨
60′
64′
Tiago Ventura 1–3
67′
🔁 Igor Santos
↦ Luís Gonçalves
Nico 🔁
↦ Rafael Peixoto
70′
79′
🟨 Pipo
Nico 🟨
79′
80′
🔁 Hudson
↦ Edu Leal
Filipe Maio 🔁
↦ Luís Oliveira
86′
Diogo Cornélio 🔁
↦ Filipe Garcia
86′
89′
🔁 Gonçalo Botelho
↦ Pipo
89′
🔁 Diaby
↦ Diogo Almeida
89′
🔁 Kenedy Có
↦ Tiago Ventura
91′
🟨 I. Santos
2–3 Diogo Ramalho
98′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

SC Covilha

53 Rafa
55 Filipe Garcia
44 David Santos
4 Tiago Caveira
17 Luís Oliveira
70 Rafael Peixoto
77 Diogo Ramalho
10 Luís Salgado
91 Guilherme Paula
19 Lucas Duarte
11 Dener
Bench (9)
5 Zé Simão
9 Paulinho
15 Nico
6 Filipe Maio
16 Diogo Cornélio
13 Pedro Ribeiro
71 João Gonçalo
79 Vasco Cunha
89 Rafael Piteira

Coach: Francisco Chaló

Rebordosa

1 Pedro Soares
3 Rui Filipe
4 Sandro Fonseca
21 Miguel Silva
2 Edgar
80 Tiago Ventura
8 A. Njoya
6 Luís Gonçalves
16 Pipo
77 Diogo Almeida
25 Edu Leal
Bench (9)
66 Igor Santos
10 Hudson
20 Gonçalo Botelho
26 Diaby
9 Kenedy Có
17 Rúben Carvalho
22 Diogo Costa
31 Rui Mota
49 Ricardo Rocha

Coach: Vítor Gamito

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.