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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Nijmegen

S T S S S

1–2

Full-time

Utrecht

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 12/11 matches

Win Ø 62%

42%

82%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

55%

Both score Ø 45%

25%

64%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,32 xG 0,63

63% Possession 37%

19 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 5

9 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 8. · Utrecht 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	0	1	+36	+20.6	36
2	Feyenoord	13	8	4	1	+18	+14.2	28
3	Utrecht	11	9	1	1	+9	-0.6	28
4	Ajax	11	8	2	1	+14	+13.5	26
5	Twente	13	7	4	2	+14	+12.5	25
6	Go Ahead Eagles	13	5	3	5	-2	+10.1	18
7	For Sittard	13	5	2	6	-4	+1.6	17
8	Nijmegen	12	5	1	6	+9	+1.4	16
9	Willem II	12	4	3	5	+1	-10.1	15
10	NAC Breda	12	5	0	7	-9	-5.2	15
11	AZ Alkmaar	11	4	2	5	+1	+4.9	14
12	Heerenveen	12	4	2	6	-5	-3.0	14
13	Heracles	13	3	4	6	-11	-10.9	13
14	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-8	-11.7	12
15	Groningen	13	3	3	7	-12	-12.3	12
16	Sparta Rotterdam	12	2	5	5	-6	-0.2	11
17	Almere City	13	1	3	9	-24	-10.2	6
18	Waalwijk	13	1	2	10	-21	-14.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+21	+11.9	18
2	Ajax	5	5	0	0	+10	+8.4	15
3	Utrecht	6	5	0	1	+3	+2.4	15
4	Heerenveen	6	4	2	0	+8	+4.9	14
5	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+5	+7.7	13
6	Twente	6	3	3	0	+8	+9.2	12
7	For Sittard	7	4	0	3	+2	+3.2	12
8	NAC Breda	6	4	0	2	+2	+0.7	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	2	2	+2	+9.3	11
10	Nijmegen	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.5	10
11	Heracles	7	2	3	2	+0	-1.4	9
12	Zwolle	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.5	9
13	Groningen	6	2	2	2	+2	-1.8	8
14	Willem II	6	2	1	3	+1	-3.4	7
15	AZ Alkmaar	5	1	1	3	-2	+3.0	4
16	Sparta Rotterdam	6	0	4	2	-4	+3.0	4
17	Waalwijk	7	1	1	5	-8	-5.9	4
18	Almere City	7	1	1	5	-15	-2.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	6	0	1	+15	+8.8	18
2	Feyenoord	7	4	3	0	+13	+6.6	15
3	Twente	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.4	13
4	Utrecht	5	4	1	0	+6	-3.0	13
5	Ajax	6	3	2	1	+4	+5.0	11
6	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.9	10
7	Willem II	6	2	2	2	+0	-6.8	8
8	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	1	3	-2	-3.2	7
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.8	7
10	Nijmegen	6	2	0	4	+1	-2.2	6
11	For Sittard	6	1	2	3	-6	-1.6	5
12	Heracles	6	1	1	4	-11	-9.5	4
13	Groningen	7	1	1	5	-14	-10.5	4
14	Zwolle	6	0	3	3	-8	-10.2	3
15	NAC Breda	6	1	0	5	-11	-5.9	3
16	Almere City	6	0	2	4	-9	-7.4	2
17	Waalwijk	6	0	1	5	-13	-8.7	1
18	Heerenveen	6	0	0	6	-13	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.