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La Liga

Referee: Mateo Busquets

Sevilla

T S S T T

1–0

Full-time

Vallecano

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 32%

31%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

46%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,89 xG 0,85

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sevilla 13. · Vallecano 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	11	1	2	+28	+14.0	34
2	Ath Madrid	14	8	5	1	+13	+10.4	29
3	Real Madrid	12	8	3	1	+14	+11.1	27
4	Villarreal	13	7	4	2	+4	+6.0	25
5	Osasuna	14	6	4	4	-3	-5.1	22
6	Girona	14	6	3	5	+2	+6.0	21
7	Mallorca	14	6	3	5	+1	+3.7	21
8	Ath Bilbao	13	5	5	3	+6	+5.7	20
9	Betis	14	5	5	4	+0	+3.6	20
10	Sociedad	13	5	3	5	+1	+3.3	18
11	Celta	14	5	3	6	-2	+3.6	18
12	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.3	16
13	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-6	-2.8	15
14	Leganes	13	3	5	5	-3	-10.1	14
15	Getafe	14	2	7	5	-1	+1.7	13
16	Alaves	14	4	1	9	-9	-5.4	13
17	Las Palmas	14	3	3	8	-7	-12.6	12
18	Valencia	12	2	4	6	-7	-9.2	10
19	Espanol	13	3	1	9	-14	-13.8	10
20	Valladolid	14	2	3	9	-17	-9.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+11	+9.4	18
2	Ath Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	+12.7	17
3	Osasuna	8	5	2	1	+5	+2.8	17
4	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+15	+9.3	15
5	Celta	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.7	14
6	Betis	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.5	14
7	Girona	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.8	13
8	Ath Bilbao	7	3	3	1	+5	+3.2	12
9	Getafe	8	2	5	1	+3	+5.5	11
10	Villarreal	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.5	11
11	Leganes	6	3	1	2	+2	+0.5	10
12	Alaves	6	3	1	2	+0	-2.4	10
13	Mallorca	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.2	9
14	Espanol	6	3	0	3	-1	-1.0	9
15	Sevilla	6	3	0	3	-2	+1.6	9
16	Valencia	6	2	2	2	+2	-0.5	8
17	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.1	8
18	Sociedad	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.0	7
19	Las Palmas	7	1	3	3	-2	-4.3	6
20	Valladolid	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	6	1	2	+13	+4.8	19
2	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+2	+5.5	14
3	Ath Madrid	7	3	3	1	+2	-2.2	12
4	Mallorca	7	4	0	3	+1	+2.5	12
5	Sociedad	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.3	11
6	Real Madrid	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.6	9
7	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.5	8
8	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.4	8
9	Girona	7	2	2	3	-3	+0.2	8
10	Sevilla	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.4	6
11	Betis	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.8	6
12	Las Palmas	7	2	0	5	-5	-8.3	6
13	Osasuna	6	1	2	3	-8	-8.0	5
14	Leganes	7	0	4	3	-5	-10.6	4
15	Celta	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.1	4
16	Alaves	8	1	0	7	-9	-3.1	3
17	Valladolid	7	1	0	6	-15	-7.5	3
18	Getafe	6	0	2	4	-4	-3.8	2
19	Valencia	6	0	2	4	-9	-8.6	2
20	Espanol	7	0	1	6	-13	-12.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.