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Champions League
Referee: I Kružliak
Ath Madrid
U S U S S
2–1
Full-time
RB Leipzig
U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
0,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,62 xG 0,71
52% Possession 48%
21 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 2
3 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ath Madrid RB Leipzig
4′
⚽ B. Šeško 0–1
Robin Le Normand 🟨
10′
1–1 A. Griezmann ⚽
Marcos Llorente
28′
39′
🟨 Castello Lukeba
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 C. Baumgartner
↦ A. Nusa
49′
🟨 Christoph Baumgartner
José María Giménez 🟨
60′
Rodrigo de Paul 🟨
60′
60′
🔁 N. Seiwald
↦ A. Vermeeren
Samuel Lino 🔁
↦ Rodrigo Riquelme
62′
C. Gallagher 🔁
↦ R. De Paul
63′
A. Sørloth 🔁
↦ J. Alvarez
63′
64′
🟨 Benjamin Henrichs
N. Molina 🔁
↦ Á. Correa
66′
70′
🔁 L. Geertruida
↦ B. Šeško
70′
🔁 Y. Poulsen
↦ B. Henrichs
83′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ X. Simons
2–1 J. Giménez ⚽
A. Griezmann
90′
A. Witsel 🔁
↦ A. Griezmann
92′
94′
🟨 Loïs Openda
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

3-4-2-1
13 J. Oblak G
24 Robin Le Normand D
2 J. Giménez D
23 Reinildo D
14 Marcos Llorente M
5 R. De Paul M
6 Koke M
17 Rodrigo Riquelme M
10 Á. Correa F
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
12 Samuel Lino
4 C. Gallagher
9 A. Sørloth
16 N. Molina
20 A. Witsel
29 Javi Serrano
21 Javi Galán
1 J. Musso
31 Antonio Gomis
22 G. Simeone
3 César Azpilicueta
15 C. Lenglet

Coach: D. Simeone

RB Leipzig

4-4-2
1 P. Gulácsi G
39 B. Henrichs D
4 W. Orbán D
23 C. Lukeba D
22 D. Raum D
7 A. Nusa M
8 A. Haidara M
18 A. Vermeeren M
10 X. Simons M
11 L. Openda F
30 B. Šeško F
Bench (11)
14 C. Baumgartner
13 N. Seiwald
3 L. Geertruida
9 Y. Poulsen
6 E. Elmas
19 André Silva
5 E. Bitshiabu
47 V. Gebel
26 M. Vandevoordt
16 L. Klostermann
44 K. Kampl

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kružliak · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.