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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

Dortmund

S T S S U

4–2

Full-time

Union Berlin

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,63 xG 1,42

67% Possession 33%

12 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Union Berlin 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	6	5	1	0	+14	+7.5	16
2	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+12	+7.0	15
3	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+14	+13.1	14
4	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+6	+4.5	14
5	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	+10	-0.5	13
6	Hoffenheim	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.5	12
7	Wolfsburg	6	4	0	2	+3	+2.2	12
8	Freiburg	6	3	1	2	-3	+0.6	10
9	Ein Frankfurt	6	1	4	1	-1	-2.0	7
10	Heidenheim	6	2	1	3	-3	-7.9	7
11	Union Berlin	6	2	0	4	-1	-0.0	6
12	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-3	+1.6	6
13	Werder Bremen	6	2	0	4	-4	-0.8	6
14	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-6	-0.2	5
15	Darmstadt	6	1	1	4	-8	-7.0	4
16	Bochum	6	0	3	3	-14	-8.1	3
17	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-13	-5.0	2
18	FC Koln	6	0	1	5	-7	-5.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+12	+5.3	9
2	Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	+8	+5.5	9
3	Wolfsburg	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.1	9
4	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+9	+7.2	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+7	-1.6	7
6	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.2	7
7	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.6	6
8	Werder Bremen	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.6	6
9	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
10	Augsburg	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.7	5
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.5	5
12	Darmstadt	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.2	4
13	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.3	3
14	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
15	Bochum	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
16	M'gladbach	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.6	1
17	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.1	1
18	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	3	3	0	0	+5	+0.8	9
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.1	7
3	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+5	+6.0	7
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.1	6
6	Stuttgart	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.7	6
7	M'gladbach	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.2	5
8	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	-4	+0.4	4
9	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	+1	+1.7	3
10	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	0	2	1	-2	-3.5	2
12	FC Koln	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
13	Heidenheim	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.3	1
14	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.9	1
15	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-12	-7.9	1
16	Werder Bremen	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.5	0
17	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.