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Championship

Referee: L Smith

Plymouth

T T S U T

1–3

Full-time

Swansea

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

70%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

70%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,20 xG 2,24

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

12 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Plymouth 17. · Swansea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	10	9	0	1	+15	+8.4	27
2	Ipswich	10	8	1	1	+10	+5.6	25
3	Preston	10	6	2	2	+0	-1.4	20
4	Sunderland	11	6	1	4	+8	+3.3	19
5	Birmingham	11	5	3	3	+4	+4.1	18
6	Leeds	10	4	4	2	+5	+5.7	16
7	West Brom	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.9	16
8	Norwich	10	5	1	4	+2	+1.1	16
9	Cardiff	10	5	1	4	+2	+1.5	16
10	Hull	10	4	4	2	+2	-1.1	16
11	Southampton	10	5	1	4	-4	-1.3	16
12	Bristol City	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.9	15
13	Coventry	10	3	5	2	+4	+2.8	14
14	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	-1	+6.6	14
15	Millwall	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.6	14
16	Swansea	10	3	3	4	+2	+0.6	12
17	Plymouth	10	3	2	5	+1	-3.2	11
18	Stoke	10	3	1	6	-4	+1.7	10
19	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-7	-4.0	10
20	Blackburn	10	3	1	6	-8	-0.9	10
21	Watford	10	2	3	5	-2	-0.1	9
22	QPR	10	2	2	6	-8	-7.5	8
23	Rotherham	10	1	2	7	-12	-9.9	5
24	Sheffield Weds	10	0	2	8	-13	-7.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Birmingham	6	4	2	0	+7	+3.3	14
2	Ipswich	5	4	0	1	+6	+5.1	12
3	Cardiff	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.1	12
4	Leicester	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.3	12
5	Norwich	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.5	12
6	Preston	5	4	0	1	+0	-2.1	12
7	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.1	10
8	Plymouth	5	3	0	2	+6	+0.1	9
9	Coventry	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.5	9
10	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+5.7	9
11	Sunderland	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.7	9
12	Watford	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.9	8
13	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.7	8
14	Hull	5	1	4	0	+2	+0.9	7
15	Middlesbrough	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.8	7
16	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.4	7
17	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	+0.9	6
18	Millwall	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.0	6
19	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-4	+0.2	6
20	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	+0	+1.0	5
21	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.4	5
22	Huddersfield	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.2	5
23	QPR	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.2	1
24	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-6	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.1	15
2	Ipswich	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.5	13
3	Sunderland	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.5	10
4	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.9	10
5	Hull	5	3	0	2	+0	-1.9	9
6	Southampton	5	3	0	2	-3	-0.9	9
7	Millwall	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.5	8
8	Preston	5	2	2	1	+0	+0.6	8
9	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
10	Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	-1	+2.8	7
11	QPR	6	2	1	3	-3	-5.3	7
12	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	-1.9	6
13	Coventry	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.4	5
14	Huddersfield	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.8	5
15	Swansea	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.1	4
16	Norwich	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.4	4
17	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.7	4
18	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.8	4
19	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.8	4
20	Blackburn	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.0	4
21	Plymouth	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.3	2
22	Watford	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.0	1
23	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.1	1
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-11	-5.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.