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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Man City

S S S U T

3–1

Full-time

Brighton

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 55%

70%

40%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

70%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

4,3

2,5

Scored

3,3

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Brighton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+14	27
2	Man City	10	7	2	1	+23	23
3	Tottenham	11	7	2	2	+10	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+5	20
5	Man United	10	6	1	3	+0	19
6	Newcastle	11	4	6	1	+9	18
7	Liverpool	11	4	4	3	+9	16
8	Brighton	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Fulham	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Brentford	11	3	5	3	+1	14
11	Crystal Palace	10	3	4	3	-1	13
12	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-13	13
13	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
14	Southampton	11	3	2	6	-8	11
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-4	10
16	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-4	9
17	Aston Villa	11	2	3	6	-9	9
18	Wolves	11	2	3	6	-9	9
19	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-15	9
20	Leicester	11	2	2	7	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+19	15
2	Tottenham	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+7	15
4	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+12	14
5	Newcastle	6	3	3	0	+7	12
6	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+5	10
9	Man United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
10	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Leicester	6	2	2	2	+4	8
12	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
13	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+3	8
14	Bournemouth	6	2	2	2	-1	8
15	Wolves	5	2	2	1	-1	8
16	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+0	7
17	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-1	7
18	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-2	7
19	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
20	Everton	5	1	2	2	-1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+7	12
2	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+0	10
3	Man United	5	3	0	2	-4	9
4	Man City	5	2	2	1	+4	8
5	Tottenham	6	2	2	2	-1	8
6	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Newcastle	5	1	3	1	+2	6
8	Southampton	6	2	0	4	-7	6
9	Everton	6	1	2	3	-3	5
10	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-12	5
11	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-3	4
12	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Crystal Palace	4	0	3	1	-2	3
14	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-5	3
15	Liverpool	5	0	2	3	-3	2
16	Aston Villa	6	0	2	4	-8	2
17	Nott'm Forest	6	0	2	4	-13	2
18	Leeds	5	0	1	4	-7	1
19	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Leicester	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.