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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Brighton

U T S T U

3–2

Full-time

Man City

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,3

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 47%

22%

72%

Points per game

1,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

44%

47%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,2

2,9

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%

19 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Brighton 17. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	36	26	5	5	+47	83
2	Man United	37	20	11	6	+28	71
3	Leicester	36	20	6	10	+21	66
4	Chelsea	36	18	10	8	+22	64
5	Liverpool	36	18	9	9	+21	63
6	Tottenham	36	17	8	11	+22	59
7	West Ham	36	17	8	11	+10	59
8	Leeds	37	17	5	15	+6	56
9	Everton	36	16	8	12	+3	56
10	Arsenal	36	16	7	13	+12	55
11	Aston Villa	36	14	7	15	+7	49
12	Wolves	36	12	9	15	-14	45
13	Crystal Palace	36	12	8	16	-21	44
14	Southampton	37	12	7	18	-18	43
15	Burnley	36	10	9	17	-18	39
16	Newcastle	36	10	9	17	-19	39
17	Brighton	36	8	14	14	-5	38
18	Fulham	37	5	13	19	-24	28
19	West Brom	36	5	11	20	-37	26
20	Sheffield United	36	6	2	28	-43	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	2	4	+21	38
2	Tottenham	18	10	3	5	+16	33
3	Man United	19	9	4	6	+10	31
4	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
5	Chelsea	18	8	6	4	+12	30
6	Liverpool	18	9	3	6	+7	30
7	Leicester	18	9	1	8	+6	28
8	Southampton	19	8	3	8	+3	27
9	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+5	26
10	Arsenal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
11	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	-10	23
13	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	+1	22
14	Newcastle	18	5	5	8	-8	20
15	Everton	18	5	4	9	-5	19
16	Brighton	18	3	9	6	-1	18
17	Burnley	18	4	6	8	-10	18
18	West Brom	18	3	6	9	-22	15
19	Sheffield United	18	4	1	13	-16	13
20	Fulham	18	2	4	12	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	14	3	1	+26	45
2	Man United	18	11	7	0	+18	40
3	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+15	38
4	Everton	18	11	4	3	+8	37
5	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+10	34
6	Liverpool	18	9	6	3	+14	33
7	Arsenal	18	9	3	6	+11	30
8	Leeds	19	10	0	9	+1	30
9	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+3	28
10	Aston Villa	18	8	3	7	+6	27
11	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+6	26
12	Burnley	18	6	3	9	-8	21
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-11	21
14	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-4	20
15	Wolves	18	5	5	8	-11	20
16	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-11	19
17	Fulham	19	3	9	7	-7	18
18	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-21	16
19	West Brom	18	2	5	11	-15	11
20	Sheffield United	18	2	1	15	-27	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.