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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Brighton

S U T S T

0–5

Full-time

Man City

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

0,7

3,0

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 45%

24%

65%

Points per game

1,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

44%

74%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,4

3,5

Scored

1,1

2,5

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

29% Possession 71%

3 Shots 26

0 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 7

6 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 3

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 15. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	30	3	2	+49	93
2	Man City	34	22	3	9	+52	69
3	Chelsea	35	18	6	11	+14	60
4	Leicester	34	17	8	9	+32	59
5	Man United	34	16	10	8	+26	58
6	Sheffield United	35	14	12	9	+5	54
7	Wolves	34	13	13	8	+8	52
8	Arsenal	34	12	14	8	+8	50
9	Burnley	35	14	8	13	-8	50
10	Tottenham	34	13	10	11	+8	49
11	Everton	34	12	9	13	-8	45
12	Southampton	34	13	5	16	-13	44
13	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
14	Crystal Palace	34	11	9	14	-13	42
15	Brighton	34	8	12	14	-11	36
16	West Ham	35	9	7	19	-15	34
17	Watford	35	8	10	17	-21	34
18	Bournemouth	34	7	7	20	-27	28
19	Aston Villa	34	7	6	21	-29	27
20	Norwich	35	5	6	24	-41	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	17	1	0	+34	52
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+38	41
3	Man United	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+15	33
6	Sheffield United	18	10	3	5	+10	33
7	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+11	30
8	Arsenal	17	8	6	3	+10	30
9	Everton	17	8	6	3	+5	30
10	Burnley	17	8	3	6	+2	27
11	Newcastle	17	6	8	3	+3	26
12	Wolves	17	6	7	4	+3	25
13	Watford	18	6	6	6	-1	24
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-3	22
15	Brighton	17	5	6	6	-2	21
16	West Ham	17	5	3	9	-5	18
17	Bournemouth	17	4	6	7	-9	18
18	Aston Villa	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Southampton	17	5	2	10	-16	17
20	Norwich	18	4	3	11	-16	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	2	2	+15	41
2	Chelsea	18	9	3	6	+3	30
3	Man City	17	9	1	7	+14	28
4	Wolves	17	7	6	4	+5	27
5	Southampton	17	8	3	6	+3	27
6	Leicester	17	7	4	6	+14	25
7	Man United	17	6	5	6	+3	23
8	Burnley	18	6	5	7	-10	23
9	Sheffield United	17	4	9	4	-5	21
10	Arsenal	17	4	8	5	-2	20
11	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-10	20
12	Newcastle	18	5	2	11	-19	17
13	Tottenham	17	3	7	7	-7	16
14	West Ham	18	4	4	10	-10	16
15	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
16	Everton	17	4	3	10	-13	15
17	Bournemouth	17	3	1	13	-18	10
18	Watford	17	2	4	11	-20	10
19	Aston Villa	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Norwich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.