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Super League

Referee: L Piccolo

Winterthur

T T U U S

0–2

Full-time

Basel

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Basel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 30%

13%

47%

Points per game

0,6

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 67%

70%

63%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

2,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,47 xG 0,82

43% Possession 57%

17 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

17 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Winterthur 12. · Basel 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	31	23	2	6	+37	+7.3	71
2	St. Gallen	31	16	8	7	+23	+9.0	56
3	Lugano	30	14	8	8	+10	-4.5	50
4	Basel	30	14	7	9	+6	+12.1	49
5	Sion	31	11	13	7	+9	+10.0	46
6	Young Boys	30	13	6	11	+5	-1.4	45
7	Luzern	30	9	9	12	+2	+1.1	36
8	Servette	31	8	12	11	-3	+6.9	36
9	Lausanne	30	9	9	12	-4	+4.8	36
10	Zurich	31	10	4	17	-16	-5.8	34
11	Grasshoppers	31	5	9	17	-23	-17.5	24
12	Winterthur	30	4	7	19	-46	-22.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	16	11	2	3	+20	+3.7	35
2	Lugano	15	9	3	3	+11	-1.0	30
3	St. Gallen	16	9	2	5	+12	+12.1	29
4	Sion	16	7	6	3	+10	+5.2	27
5	Young Boys	14	8	2	4	+16	+10.3	26
6	Basel	15	7	5	3	+10	+17.3	26
7	Servette	16	4	7	5	+1	+3.5	19
8	Zurich	16	6	1	9	-5	+0.5	19
9	Lausanne	15	4	5	6	+0	+9.2	17
10	Luzern	15	3	5	7	-1	+3.9	14
11	Grasshoppers	15	3	5	7	-2	-4.0	14
12	Winterthur	14	2	4	8	-14	-4.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	15	12	0	3	+17	+3.7	36
2	St. Gallen	15	7	6	2	+11	-3.1	27
3	Basel	15	7	2	6	-4	-5.3	23
4	Luzern	15	6	4	5	+3	-2.8	22
5	Lugano	15	5	5	5	-1	-3.5	20
6	Sion	15	4	7	4	-1	+4.8	19
7	Lausanne	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.4	19
8	Young Boys	16	5	4	7	-11	-11.7	19
9	Servette	15	4	5	6	-4	+3.4	17
10	Zurich	15	4	3	8	-11	-6.3	15
11	Grasshoppers	16	2	4	10	-21	-13.5	10
12	Winterthur	16	2	3	11	-32	-18.0	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.