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Serie B

Referee: D Chiffi

Sampdoria

T U T U T

2–1

Full-time

Avellino

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Avellino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 28%

23%

32%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

39%

52%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,53 xG 0,32

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 26

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sampdoria 15. · Avellino 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	32	20	8	4	+37	+29.5	68
2	Frosinone	32	18	11	3	+30	+8.3	65
3	Monza	32	19	8	5	+24	+14.0	65
4	Palermo	32	17	10	5	+25	+10.3	61
5	Catanzaro	31	14	10	7	+11	+1.5	52
6	Modena	31	14	8	9	+17	+9.4	50
7	Juve Stabia	32	10	15	7	+0	+1.9	45
8	Cesena	32	12	7	13	-6	+3.9	43
9	Carrarese	32	9	12	11	-1	-6.9	39
10	Avellino	31	10	9	12	-13	-14.9	39
11	Sudtirol	32	8	14	10	-1	-3.8	38
12	Empoli	32	8	12	12	-4	+3.7	36
13	Padova	32	8	10	14	-11	-9.7	34
14	Mantova	32	9	7	16	-12	+0.5	34
15	Sampdoria	31	7	10	14	-13	-3.1	31
16	Virtus Entella	31	7	10	14	-17	-10.2	31
17	Bari	32	7	10	15	-20	-18.9	31
18	Spezia	32	7	9	16	-15	-3.9	30
19	Reggiana	31	7	9	15	-16	-7.2	30
20	Pescara	32	6	11	15	-15	-4.5	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	16	14	0	2	+26	+16.8	42
2	Monza	16	12	3	1	+19	+10.8	39
3	Palermo	16	11	4	1	+21	+8.1	37
4	Frosinone	15	9	4	2	+17	+6.8	31
5	Catanzaro	15	8	6	1	+10	+2.7	30
6	Juve Stabia	16	7	8	1	+9	+5.8	29
7	Modena	17	8	4	5	+11	+1.3	28
8	Avellino	16	7	4	5	-2	-6.2	25
9	Carrarese	16	6	6	4	+7	+3.1	24
10	Virtus Entella	15	6	6	3	+4	-2.8	24
11	Mantova	16	7	3	6	-1	+3.6	24
12	Sampdoria	15	6	5	4	+2	+2.3	23
13	Empoli	17	4	10	3	+6	+8.0	22
14	Cesena	16	6	4	6	+0	+5.5	22
15	Pescara	16	5	5	6	+3	-0.8	20
16	Sudtirol	16	5	5	6	+1	-3.6	20
17	Bari	16	5	5	6	-3	-8.1	20
18	Reggiana	15	4	6	5	-3	-2.6	18
19	Spezia	16	4	5	7	-6	-0.6	17
20	Padova	16	3	7	6	-4	-4.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	17	9	7	1	+13	+1.5	34
2	Venezia	16	6	8	2	+11	+12.7	26
3	Monza	16	7	5	4	+5	+3.2	26
4	Palermo	16	6	6	4	+4	+2.2	24
5	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
6	Catanzaro	16	6	4	6	+1	-1.2	22
7	Cesena	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	16	3	9	4	-2	-0.2	18
9	Padova	16	5	3	8	-7	-5.2	18
10	Juve Stabia	16	3	7	6	-9	-3.9	16
11	Carrarese	16	3	6	7	-8	-9.9	15
12	Empoli	15	4	2	9	-10	-4.3	14
13	Avellino	15	3	5	7	-11	-8.6	14
14	Spezia	16	3	4	9	-9	-3.3	13
15	Reggiana	16	3	3	10	-13	-4.6	12
16	Bari	16	2	5	9	-17	-10.8	11
17	Mantova	16	2	4	10	-11	-3.1	10
18	Pescara	16	1	6	9	-18	-3.7	9
19	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-15	-5.3	8
20	Virtus Entella	16	1	4	11	-21	-7.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.