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Eredivisie

Referee: M Vos

Groningen

T T T S U

3–0

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Groningen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

44%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

54%

67%

Both score Ø 64%

58%

70%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,50 xG 1,73

47% Possession 53%

15 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Groningen 10. · AZ Alkmaar 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	27	22	2	3	+43	+27.5	68
2	Feyenoord	28	16	5	7	+21	+25.8	53
3	Nijmegen	28	14	8	6	+22	+8.7	50
4	Twente	28	12	11	5	+17	+25.5	47
5	Ajax	27	11	12	4	+16	+7.6	45
6	AZ Alkmaar	27	12	6	9	+5	+17.2	42
7	Sparta Rotterdam	28	12	5	11	-12	-4.1	41
8	Utrecht	27	11	7	9	+11	+4.3	40
9	Heerenveen	27	11	7	9	+3	+7.8	40
10	Groningen	26	10	5	11	+2	+9.6	35
11	For Sittard	28	10	5	13	-9	-13.3	35
12	Zwolle	28	8	9	11	-15	-17.1	33
13	Go Ahead Eagles	28	7	11	10	+0	-16.8	32
14	Volendam	28	7	6	15	-18	-23.5	27
15	Excelsior	28	7	6	15	-18	-15.9	27
16	Telstar	27	5	9	13	-10	-11.3	24
17	NAC Breda	28	5	8	15	-21	-8.6	23
18	Heracles	28	5	4	19	-37	-23.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	2	2	+22	+15.3	32
2	Feyenoord	15	10	2	3	+14	+18.6	32
3	Nijmegen	14	8	3	3	+15	+9.6	27
4	Ajax	13	8	3	2	+15	+13.8	27
5	Twente	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.9	25
6	Zwolle	14	7	3	4	+1	-0.4	24
7	Utrecht	13	7	2	4	+11	+7.1	23
8	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	5	2	+8	+11.6	23
9	Heerenveen	14	6	5	3	+5	+9.5	23
10	Volendam	14	6	4	4	+4	-3.6	22
11	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	4	4	-3	+1.2	22
12	Go Ahead Eagles	14	5	6	3	+8	+2.3	21
13	For Sittard	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.9	21
14	Groningen	13	5	3	5	+6	+5.9	18
15	NAC Breda	14	4	4	6	-3	+2.6	16
16	Heracles	14	4	3	7	-7	-5.6	15
17	Excelsior	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14
18	Telstar	13	2	5	6	-3	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	0	1	+21	+12.2	36
2	Nijmegen	14	6	5	3	+7	-0.9	23
3	Twente	14	5	7	2	+9	+10.6	22
4	Feyenoord	13	6	3	4	+7	+7.3	21
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	1	7	-3	+5.6	19
6	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	1	7	-9	-5.4	19
7	Ajax	14	3	9	2	+1	-6.2	18
8	Utrecht	14	4	5	5	+0	-2.8	17
9	Heerenveen	13	5	2	6	-2	-1.7	17
10	Groningen	13	5	2	6	-4	+3.7	17
11	For Sittard	14	4	2	8	-8	-12.4	14
12	Telstar	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.4	13
13	Excelsior	14	3	4	7	-13	-11.7	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	14	2	5	7	-8	-19.1	11
15	Zwolle	14	1	6	7	-16	-16.7	9
16	NAC Breda	14	1	4	9	-18	-11.3	7
17	Volendam	14	1	2	11	-22	-19.9	5
18	Heracles	14	1	1	12	-30	-17.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.