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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Fiorentina

T U S S S

1–1

Full-time

Inter

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 49%

21%

76%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

62%

52%

Both score Ø 54%

66%

41%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,31 xG 1,32

40% Possession 60%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 16. · Inter 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	29	22	2	5	+42	+35.0	68
2	Milan	30	18	9	3	+24	+16.9	63
3	Napoli	30	19	5	6	+16	+10.5	62
4	Como	30	16	9	5	+31	+21.7	57
5	Juventus	30	15	9	6	+23	+29.3	54
6	Roma	30	17	3	10	+17	+7.0	54
7	Atalanta	30	13	11	6	+14	+11.4	50
8	Lazio	30	11	10	9	+3	-6.9	43
9	Bologna	30	12	6	12	+2	+0.1	42
10	Sassuolo	30	11	6	13	-4	-13.2	39
11	Udinese	30	11	6	13	-7	-10.3	39
12	Parma	30	8	10	12	-17	-17.9	34
13	Genoa	30	8	9	13	-6	+0.7	33
14	Torino	30	9	6	15	-19	-8.3	33
15	Cagliari	30	7	9	14	-11	-16.3	30
16	Fiorentina	29	6	10	13	-9	+5.8	28
17	Cremonese	30	6	9	15	-19	-19.2	27
18	Lecce	30	7	6	17	-19	-19.7	27
19	Verona	30	3	9	18	-30	-9.0	18
20	Pisa	30	2	12	16	-31	-17.6	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	2	2	+26	+21.9	35
2	Napoli	14	10	4	0	+12	+1.5	34
3	Como	16	9	5	2	+20	+16.6	32
4	Roma	15	10	2	3	+14	+9.5	32
5	Atalanta	16	9	5	2	+12	+14.1	32
6	Milan	15	9	4	2	+9	+9.9	31
7	Juventus	15	8	6	1	+17	+18.3	30
8	Lazio	15	7	4	4	+4	+0.5	25
9	Torino	15	6	2	7	-4	-4.2	20
10	Sassuolo	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
11	Genoa	16	5	4	7	-2	+3.3	19
12	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
13	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-4	+2.3	17
14	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-2	-6.3	16
15	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-3.5	16
16	Fiorentina	14	3	5	6	-1	+8.6	14
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-10	-8.2	14
18	Cremonese	14	2	6	6	-9	-4.5	12
19	Pisa	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Verona	14	1	4	9	-11	-2.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	11	0	3	+16	+13.1	33
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+15	+7.0	32
3	Napoli	16	9	1	6	+4	+9.0	28
4	Como	14	7	4	3	+11	+5.2	25
5	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+6	-2.2	25
6	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+6	+10.9	24
7	Roma	15	7	1	7	+3	-2.5	22
8	Udinese	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
9	Parma	15	5	5	5	-7	-9.7	20
10	Sassuolo	15	5	4	6	+0	-5.2	19
11	Atalanta	14	4	6	4	+2	-2.7	18
12	Lazio	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.4	18
13	Cremonese	16	4	3	9	-10	-14.7	15
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.5	14
15	Fiorentina	15	3	5	7	-8	-2.7	14
16	Cagliari	15	3	5	7	-9	-10.0	14
17	Torino	15	3	4	8	-15	-4.1	13
18	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-11	-16.2	11
19	Verona	16	2	5	9	-19	-6.4	11
20	Pisa	15	0	8	7	-20	-13.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.