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Super League

Referee: A Dudic

Luzern

U U U S S

4–2

Full-time

Basel

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Basel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

28%

44%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

76%

56%

Both score Ø 70%

76%

64%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

1,9

1,5

Conceded

1,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,80 xG 2,20

44% Possession 56%

23 Shots 12

10 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luzern 8. · Basel 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	25	19	1	5	+29	+3.2	58
2	St. Gallen	26	14	5	7	+19	+6.9	47
3	Lugano	25	12	7	6	+11	-2.0	43
4	Sion	26	10	10	6	+9	+6.2	40
5	Basel	25	11	7	7	+7	+14.0	40
6	Young Boys	26	10	6	10	+0	-3.6	36
7	Zurich	26	9	4	13	-11	-0.8	31
8	Luzern	25	7	9	9	+1	-2.6	30
9	Lausanne	25	7	9	9	-2	+4.8	30
10	Servette	26	6	10	10	-7	+3.3	28
11	Grasshoppers	26	4	9	13	-13	-13.6	21
12	Winterthur	25	3	5	17	-43	-15.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	13	9	1	3	+15	+2.4	28
2	Sion	14	7	4	3	+10	+3.9	25
3	Lugano	12	7	3	2	+11	+1.0	24
4	Young Boys	12	7	2	3	+14	+8.0	23
5	St. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+8	+8.6	22
6	Basel	13	5	5	3	+7	+18.1	20
7	Lausanne	13	4	5	4	+3	+9.9	17
8	Zurich	13	5	1	7	-4	+2.7	16
9	Servette	13	2	6	5	-5	+0.9	12
10	Luzern	12	2	5	5	-1	+1.6	11
11	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-2	-4.7	11
12	Winterthur	12	2	3	7	-11	-2.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	12	10	0	2	+14	+0.8	30
2	St. Gallen	13	7	4	2	+11	-1.7	25
3	Basel	12	6	2	4	+0	-4.1	20
4	Luzern	13	5	4	4	+2	-4.3	19
5	Lugano	13	5	4	4	+0	-3.0	19
6	Servette	13	4	4	5	-2	+2.3	16
7	Sion	12	3	6	3	-1	+2.3	15
8	Zurich	13	4	3	6	-7	-3.5	15
9	Lausanne	12	3	4	5	-5	-5.1	13
10	Young Boys	14	3	4	7	-14	-11.6	13
11	Grasshoppers	13	2	4	7	-11	-8.8	10
12	Winterthur	13	1	2	10	-32	-13.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.