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Super League

Referee: N Gianforte

Thun

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Luzern

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Thun Luzern

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

4,0

Scored

3,0

2,5

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 54%

77%

31%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

77%

Both score Ø 73%

69%

77%

Average goals

3,4

3,9

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,12 xG 1,37

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Thun 1. · Luzern 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	26	20	1	5	+32	+4.5	61
2	St. Gallen	26	14	5	7	+19	+6.9	47
3	Lugano	26	13	7	6	+12	-2.2	46
4	Sion	26	10	10	6	+9	+6.2	40
5	Basel	26	11	7	8	+5	+13.4	40
6	Young Boys	26	10	6	10	+0	-3.6	36
7	Luzern	26	8	9	9	+3	-2.0	33
8	Zurich	26	9	4	13	-11	-0.8	31
9	Lausanne	26	7	9	10	-3	+5.1	30
10	Servette	26	6	10	10	-7	+3.3	28
11	Grasshoppers	26	4	9	13	-13	-13.6	21
12	Winterthur	26	3	5	18	-46	-17.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	13	9	1	3	+15	+2.4	28
2	Lugano	13	8	3	2	+12	+0.8	27
3	Sion	14	7	4	3	+10	+3.9	25
4	Young Boys	12	7	2	3	+14	+8.0	23
5	St. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+8	+8.6	22
6	Basel	13	5	5	3	+7	+18.1	20
7	Lausanne	13	4	5	4	+3	+9.9	17
8	Zurich	13	5	1	7	-4	+2.7	16
9	Luzern	13	3	5	5	+1	+2.2	14
10	Servette	13	2	6	5	-5	+0.9	12
11	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-2	-4.7	11
12	Winterthur	13	2	3	8	-14	-3.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	13	11	0	2	+17	+2.1	33
2	St. Gallen	13	7	4	2	+11	-1.7	25
3	Basel	13	6	2	5	-2	-4.7	20
4	Luzern	13	5	4	4	+2	-4.3	19
5	Lugano	13	5	4	4	+0	-3.0	19
6	Servette	13	4	4	5	-2	+2.3	16
7	Sion	12	3	6	3	-1	+2.3	15
8	Zurich	13	4	3	6	-7	-3.5	15
9	Lausanne	13	3	4	6	-6	-4.9	13
10	Young Boys	14	3	4	7	-14	-11.6	13
11	Grasshoppers	13	2	4	7	-11	-8.8	10
12	Winterthur	13	1	2	10	-32	-13.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.