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Super League

Referee: A Kanagasingam

Lugano

U U S T S

1–3

Full-time

Luzern

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Luzern

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,0

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 40%

50%

29%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

50%

79%

Both score Ø 72%

64%

79%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,6

1,9

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,69 xG 1,91

64% Possession 36%

11 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 3. · Luzern 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	28	21	2	5	+33	+5.3	65
2	St. Gallen	28	15	6	7	+20	+8.1	51
3	Lugano	28	14	7	7	+12	-3.2	49
4	Basel	28	13	7	8	+7	+14.0	46
5	Sion	29	10	12	7	+8	+9.1	42
6	Young Boys	28	12	6	10	+4	-0.8	42
7	Luzern	28	8	9	11	+1	-1.6	33
8	Lausanne	28	8	9	11	-3	+5.3	33
9	Servette	29	7	12	10	-6	+1.9	33
10	Zurich	29	9	4	16	-16	-4.4	31
11	Grasshoppers	28	5	9	14	-13	-13.2	24
12	Winterthur	29	3	7	19	-47	-20.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	15	10	2	3	+16	+3.2	32
2	Lugano	14	9	3	2	+13	+0.2	30
3	Young Boys	13	8	2	3	+17	+11.1	26
4	Sion	15	7	5	3	+10	+4.9	26
5	St. Gallen	14	8	1	5	+9	+10.9	25
6	Basel	14	6	5	3	+8	+18.2	23
7	Lausanne	14	4	5	5	+2	+9.4	17
8	Servette	15	3	7	5	-4	-0.6	16
9	Zurich	14	5	1	8	-5	+1.9	16
10	Luzern	14	3	5	6	+0	+2.5	14
11	Grasshoppers	14	3	5	6	-1	-4.3	14
12	Winterthur	14	2	4	8	-14	-4.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	13	11	0	2	+17	+2.1	33
2	St. Gallen	14	7	5	2	+11	-2.8	26
3	Basel	14	7	2	5	-1	-4.1	23
4	Luzern	14	5	4	5	+1	-4.0	19
5	Lugano	14	5	4	5	-1	-3.5	19
6	Servette	14	4	5	5	-2	+2.6	17
7	Sion	14	3	7	4	-2	+4.2	16
8	Lausanne	14	4	4	6	-5	-4.1	16
9	Young Boys	15	4	4	7	-13	-11.9	16
10	Zurich	15	4	3	8	-11	-6.3	15
11	Grasshoppers	14	2	4	8	-12	-8.9	10
12	Winterthur	15	1	3	11	-33	-16.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.