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Super League

Referee: Anojen Kanagasingam

Luzern

T T T S U

1–2

Full-time

Thun

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Thun

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,8

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,13 xG 1,62

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 20

2 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 10

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luzern 5. · Thun 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	3	3	0	0	+9	+4.2	9
2	Sion	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.0	6
3	Basel	3	2	0	1	+3	+5.2	6
4	Thun	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.6	6
5	Luzern	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	Young Boys	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
7	Lausanne	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.5	3
8	Zurich	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
9	Winterthur	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1
10	Grasshoppers	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.8	0
11	Servette	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.2	0
12	Lugano	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.9	6
2	Basel	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.3	6
3	Sion	1	1	0	0	+4	-0.5	3
4	Young Boys	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
5	Lausanne	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.9	3
6	Thun	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.7	3
7	Luzern	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
8	Winterthur	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
9	Grasshoppers	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
10	Zurich	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
11	Lugano	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
12	Servette	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.3	3
2	Luzern	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
3	Sion	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
4	Thun	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
5	Zurich	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
6	Young Boys	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.6	1
7	Grasshoppers	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
8	Basel	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
9	Lausanne	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.7	0
10	Servette	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
11	Lugano	1	0	0	1	-4	+0.5	0
12	Winterthur	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.