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Ekstraklasa

Referee: S Marciniak

Arka Gdynia

U T T U U

2–1

Full-time

Pogon Szczecin

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arka Gdynia Pogon Szczecin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,0

4,3

Scored

0,3

2,0

Conceded

0,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,76 xG 2,59

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arka Gdynia 15. · Pogon Szczecin 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	3	3	0	0	+5	+4.8	9
2	Cracovia	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.6	7
3	Radomiak Radom	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.1	7
4	Nieciecza	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.2	7
5	Widzew Lodz	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.1	6
6	Gornik Zabrze	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.2	6
7	Lech Poznan	3	2	0	1	-1	+3.4	6
8	Legia	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
9	Pogon Szczecin	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.1	4
10	Korona Kielce	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.1	4
11	Rakow	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.3	3
12	Motor Lublin	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
13	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.4	3
14	Zaglebie	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.1	2
15	Arka Gdynia	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.0	2
16	Lechia Gdansk	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.9	1
17	GKS Katowice	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.2	1
18	Piast Gliwice	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Radomiak Radom	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.2	6
2	Wisla Plock	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.8	6
3	Widzew Lodz	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
4	Cracovia	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
5	Pogon Szczecin	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.3	3
6	Korona Kielce	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
7	Motor Lublin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
8	Gornik Zabrze	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.4	3
9	Lech Poznan	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.7	3
10	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.4	3
11	Arka Gdynia	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
12	Zaglebie	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
13	Nieciecza	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Legia	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
15	GKS Katowice	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.0	1
16	Lechia Gdansk	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
17	Rakow	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
18	Piast Gliwice	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nieciecza	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.5	6
2	Cracovia	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.1	3
3	Legia	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
4	Lech Poznan	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
5	Wisla Plock	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
6	Gornik Zabrze	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.7	3
7	Rakow	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
8	Lechia Gdansk	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.1	1
9	Zaglebie	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.0	1
10	Arka Gdynia	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
11	Korona Kielce	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.2	1
12	Radomiak Radom	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.3	1
13	Pogon Szczecin	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
14	Widzew Lodz	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.0	0
15	Piast Gliwice	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
16	Motor Lublin	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
17	GKS Katowice	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.