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Super League

Referee: F San

Basel

S S S S T

4–0

Full-time

Luzern

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Luzern

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

5,8

3,7

Scored

4,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 48%

57%

38%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

62%

65%

Both score Ø 68%

62%

73%

Average goals

3,5

3,4

Scored

2,4

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

56% Possession 44%

21 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Basel 1. · Luzern 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Basel	37	21	7	9	+44	+22.4	70
2	Servette	37	17	11	9	+9	+0.7	62
3	Young Boys	37	17	9	11	+11	+8.2	60
4	Zurich	38	15	8	15	-1	-2.2	53
5	Lugano	37	15	8	14	-3	+7.7	53
6	Lausanne	37	14	10	13	+8	+10.2	52
7	Luzern	37	14	10	13	+6	+8.1	52
8	St. Gallen	38	13	13	12	-1	-5.6	52
9	Sion	38	11	11	16	-10	-1.7	44
10	Winterthur	38	11	7	20	-25	-20.1	40
11	Grasshoppers	38	9	12	17	-10	-10.6	39
12	Yverdon	38	9	12	17	-28	-17.1	39

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	19	13	4	2	+24	+8.5	43
2	Basel	18	12	2	4	+24	+18.6	38
3	Lausanne	20	11	3	6	+13	+11.0	36
4	St. Gallen	18	9	6	3	+9	+7.3	33
5	Servette	18	9	6	3	+9	+5.3	33
6	Luzern	19	9	5	5	+10	+10.9	32
7	Sion	19	8	8	3	+10	+11.4	32
8	Lugano	18	9	4	5	+3	+11.1	31
9	Zurich	19	8	5	6	+2	-0.5	29
10	Winterthur	19	8	3	8	-4	-3.8	27
11	Yverdon	19	7	5	7	-3	-2.3	26
12	Grasshoppers	19	5	8	6	+4	+6.5	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Basel	19	9	5	5	+20	+3.9	32
2	Servette	19	8	5	6	+0	-4.6	29
3	Zurich	19	7	3	9	-3	-1.7	24
4	Lugano	19	6	4	9	-6	-3.4	22
5	Luzern	18	5	5	8	-4	-2.7	20
6	St. Gallen	20	4	7	9	-10	-12.9	19
7	Young Boys	18	4	5	9	-13	-0.4	17
8	Lausanne	17	3	7	7	-5	-0.8	16
9	Grasshoppers	19	4	4	11	-14	-17.2	16
10	Winterthur	19	3	4	12	-21	-16.3	13
11	Yverdon	19	2	7	10	-25	-14.8	13
12	Sion	19	3	3	13	-20	-13.0	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.