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Super League

Referee: S Horisberger

Lugano

T T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Winterthur

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Winterthur

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

44%

19%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 59%

70%

48%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 4. · Winterthur 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Servette	28	13	9	6	+8	+2.4	48
2	Basel	27	13	7	7	+27	+17.0	46
3	Luzern	28	12	8	8	+5	+5.7	44
4	Lugano	27	12	6	9	+4	+6.0	42
5	Zurich	28	12	6	10	+0	-5.1	42
6	Lausanne	28	11	7	10	+8	+7.6	40
7	Young Boys	27	11	7	9	+8	+10.4	40
8	St. Gallen	28	10	9	9	+2	-4.6	39
9	Sion	28	9	7	12	-6	+2.8	34
10	Yverdon	28	8	7	13	-16	-15.1	31
11	Grasshoppers	28	5	12	11	-11	-9.5	27
12	Winterthur	27	5	5	17	-29	-17.7	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	14	9	3	2	+17	+7.7	30
2	Luzern	14	8	3	3	+8	+9.0	27
3	Lugano	14	8	3	3	+7	+8.5	27
4	Basel	13	8	2	3	+13	+14.9	26
5	Lausanne	14	8	2	4	+12	+9.4	26
6	Servette	14	7	5	2	+6	+5.0	26
7	St. Gallen	14	6	6	2	+9	+4.8	24
8	Sion	13	6	5	2	+9	+12.4	23
9	Zurich	15	6	4	5	+0	-2.2	22
10	Yverdon	14	6	3	5	-1	-2.8	21
11	Winterthur	13	5	1	7	-7	-3.1	16
12	Grasshoppers	14	2	8	4	-3	+4.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Servette	14	6	4	4	+2	-2.6	22
2	Basel	14	5	5	4	+14	+2.1	20
3	Zurich	13	6	2	5	+0	-2.9	20
4	Luzern	14	4	5	5	-3	-3.3	17
5	Lugano	13	4	3	6	-3	-2.5	15
6	St. Gallen	14	4	3	7	-7	-9.4	15
7	Lausanne	14	3	5	6	-4	-1.8	14
8	Grasshoppers	14	3	4	7	-8	-13.8	13
9	Sion	15	3	2	10	-15	-9.6	11
10	Young Boys	13	2	4	7	-9	+2.7	10
11	Yverdon	14	2	4	8	-15	-12.3	10
12	Winterthur	14	0	4	10	-22	-14.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.