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Bundesliga

Referee: Markus Schmidt

Mainz

U S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,2

4,5

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

4,0

Scored

0,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

36% Possession 64%

14 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 16. · Leverkusen 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Hannover	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Hamburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	M'gladbach	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Hertha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Leverkusen	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Freiburg	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Freiburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Schalke 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Hertha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.