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Bundesliga

Referee: Robert Schroder

Mainz

U U S S T

1–5

Full-time

Leverkusen

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 40%

35%

45%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

55%

65%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–4

28% Possession 72%

15 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

5 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 11. · Leverkusen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	20	15	4	1	+31	49
2	M'gladbach	20	13	3	4	+23	42
3	Bayern Munich	20	13	3	4	+21	42
4	RB Leipzig	20	11	4	5	+20	37
5	Ein Frankfurt	20	9	5	6	+13	32
6	Wolfsburg	20	9	4	7	+2	31
7	Leverkusen	20	9	3	8	+1	30
8	Hoffenheim	20	7	8	5	+9	29
9	Hertha	20	7	7	6	+0	28
10	Werder Bremen	20	7	6	7	+0	27
11	Mainz	20	7	6	7	-6	27
12	Schalke 04	20	6	4	10	-5	22
13	Freiburg	20	5	7	8	-8	22
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	20	6	4	10	-17	22
15	Augsburg	20	4	6	10	-4	18
16	Stuttgart	20	4	3	13	-27	15
17	Nurnberg	20	2	6	12	-27	12
18	Hannover	20	2	5	13	-26	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	10	9	1	0	+22	28
2	M'gladbach	9	9	0	0	+22	27
3	RB Leipzig	10	7	2	1	+17	23
4	Bayern Munich	9	5	3	1	+8	18
5	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+10	17
6	Hertha	10	4	4	2	+2	16
7	Mainz	10	4	4	2	+2	16
8	Leverkusen	10	5	1	4	+0	16
9	Hoffenheim	11	3	5	3	+3	14
10	Freiburg	10	3	4	3	+0	13
11	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	-1	13
12	Schalke 04	10	4	0	6	-3	12
13	Wolfsburg	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	4	0	6	-5	12
15	Stuttgart	10	3	2	5	-10	11
16	Augsburg	10	2	4	4	+1	10
17	Nurnberg	11	2	4	5	-4	10
18	Hannover	10	2	1	7	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	0	3	+13	24
2	Dortmund	10	6	3	1	+9	21
3	Wolfsburg	10	6	1	3	+6	19
4	Hoffenheim	9	4	3	2	+6	15
5	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	3	3	+3	15
6	M'gladbach	11	4	3	4	+1	15
7	RB Leipzig	10	4	2	4	+3	14
8	Leverkusen	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Werder Bremen	10	4	2	4	+1	14
10	Hertha	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Mainz	10	3	2	5	-8	11
12	Schalke 04	10	2	4	4	-2	10
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	2	4	4	-12	10
14	Freiburg	10	2	3	5	-8	9
15	Augsburg	10	2	2	6	-5	8
16	Hannover	10	0	4	6	-15	4
17	Stuttgart	10	1	1	8	-17	4
18	Nurnberg	9	0	2	7	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.