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Super League
Referee: António Nobre
AEK
S U S S T
1–0
Full-time
Panathinaikos
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Panathinaikos
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
67%
0%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,5
1,7
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,7
This season — Super League · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 77%
71%
82%
Points per game
2,2
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
41%
24%
Both score Ø 30%
24%
35%
Average goals
2,4
2,0
Scored
1,9
1,6
Conceded
0,4
0,4
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%
14 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 4
2 Offside 0
20 Free kicks against 23
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AEK 3. · Panathinaikos 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Panathinaikos 17 14 3 0 +22 45
2 PAOK 19 11 6 2 +16 39
3 AEK 17 12 2 3 +26 38
4 Olympiakos 18 10 5 3 +20 35
5 Volos NFC 18 8 5 5 -4 29
6 Aris Thessalonikis 17 8 4 5 +12 28
7 Aris 17 8 4 5 +12 28
8 Atromitos 18 6 5 7 +0 23
9 Panetolikos 18 6 4 8 +1 22
10 Asteras Tripolis 19 3 8 8 -13 17
11 Giannina 18 4 5 9 -17 17
12 OFI Crete 17 2 7 8 -12 13
13 Levadeiakos 19 2 6 11 -15 12
14 Lamia 18 1 7 10 -28 10
15 Ionikos 18 1 5 12 -20 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Sep -22 Panathinaikos – AEK 2–1 8. May -22 AEK – Panathinaikos 0–0 13. Mar -22 Panathinaikos – AEK 1–1 27. Feb -22 Panathinaikos – AEK 3–0 5. Dec -21 AEK – Panathinaikos 1–0

Match report

AEK Panathinaikos
Half-time 0–0
47′
🟨 Benjamin Verbič
56′
🔁 A. Čerin
↦ B. Verbič
Levi García 🟨
60′
Djibril Sidibé 🟨
67′
67′
🟨 Bart Schenkeveld
1–0 O. Pineda ⚽
S. Araújo
68′
70′
🔁 F. Ioannidis
↦ D. Kourbelis
S. Zuber 🔁
↦ N. Amrabat
81′
89′
🔁 E. Çokaj
↦ Rubén Pérez
89′
🔁 G. Vagiannidis
↦ G. Kotsiras
Paolo Fernandes 🔁
↦ O. Pineda
90′
95′
🟨 Hörður Magnússon
96′
🟨 Sebastián Palacios
G. Mitoglou 🔁
↦ S. Araújo
102′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

AEK

4-3-1-2
30 G. Athanasiadis G
29 D. Sidibé D
21 D. Vida D
2 H. Moukoudi D
28 E. Hajisafi D
5 N. Amrabat M
4 D. Szymański M
13 O. Pineda M
6 J. Jønsson M
11 S. Araújo F
7 L. Garcia F
Bench (9)
10 S. Zuber
24 G. Mitoglou
22 Paolo Fernandes
25 K. Galanopoulos
1 C. Stanković
9 T. van Weert
31 G. Tzavellas
12 L. Rota
20 P. Mantalos

Coach: M. Almeyda

Panathinaikos

4-4-2
91 A. Brignoli G
27 G. Kotsiras D
5 B. Schenkeveld D
23 H. Magnússon D
3 Juan Carlos D
34 S. Palacios M
4 Rubén Pérez M
77 B. Verbič M
21 D. Kourbelis M
10 Bernard F
9 A. Šporar F
Bench (9)
16 A. Čerin
7 F. Ioannidis
18 E. Çokaj
2 G. Vagiannidis
14 F. Sánchez
31 Z. Šarlija
6 T. Puchacz
44 A. Poungouras
12 Y. Lodygin

Coach: I. Jovanović

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,91
🔒
U
3,16
🔒
B
4,38
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
2,40
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,54
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

António Nobre · 138 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
29,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,35 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.