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Coupe de France
Referee: J Brisard
Lille
T U S S U
2–0
Full-time
Troyes
T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Troyes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%
22 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 3
9 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 6
2 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 19
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Annecy 3 3 0 0 +13 9
2 Vierzon FC 3 3 0 0 +9 9
3 Paris FC 3 3 0 0 +6 9
4 Belfort 3 3 0 0 +6 9
5 Grenoble 3 3 0 0 +6 9
6 Pau FC 3 3 0 0 +5 9
7 Le Puy Foot 3 3 0 0 +4 9
8 Stade Plabennec 3 3 0 0 +4 9
9 Grasse 3 3 0 0 +4 9
10 Les Herbiers 3 2 1 0 +8 7
11 Dunkerque 3 2 1 0 +7 7
12 Niort 3 2 1 0 +4 7
13 Chambéry 3 2 1 0 +3 7
14 Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 3 2 1 0 +2 7
15 Évreux 27 4 2 1 1 -2 7
16 Nimes 3 2 0 1 +6 6
17 Granville 3 2 0 1 +5 6
18 Bordeaux 3 2 0 1 +3 6
19 Chateauroux 3 2 0 1 +2 6
20 Metz 3 2 0 1 +1 6
21 Avranches 3 2 0 1 +1 6
22 Avoine OCC 3 2 0 1 +1 6
23 Olympique St Quentin 3 2 0 1 +0 6
24 La Châtaigneraie 3 2 0 1 -2 6
25 Amiens 3 1 2 0 +10 5
26 Chamalières 3 1 2 0 +3 5
27 Thaon 3 1 2 0 +3 5
28 Bastia 3 1 2 0 +3 5
29 Rodez 3 1 2 0 +1 5
30 Sochaux 2 1 1 0 +3 4
31 Caen 2 1 1 0 +3 4
32 Reims Sainte-Anne 2 1 1 0 +3 4
33 Guingamp 2 1 1 0 +2 4
34 Saint-Estève Perpignan 2 1 1 0 +2 4
35 Limonest 2 1 1 0 +2 4
36 Bellevue Nantes 2 1 1 0 +2 4
37 Aubagne 3 1 1 1 +1 4
38 Valenciennes 3 1 1 1 +1 4
39 Jura Sud Foot 3 1 1 1 +1 4
40 Reipertswiller 2 1 1 0 +1 4
41 Pays de Cassel 2 1 1 0 +1 4
42 Drancy 2 1 1 0 +1 4
43 Bergerac 2 1 1 0 +1 4
44 La Tamponnaise 3 1 1 1 +0 4
45 Linas-Montlhery 3 1 1 1 -1 4
46 Stade Pontivy 3 1 1 1 -2 4
47 Villerupt Thil 3 1 1 1 -3 4
48 Loon-Plage 3 1 1 1 -4 4
49 Reims 1 1 0 0 +7 3
50 Toulouse 1 1 0 0 +6 3
51 Lorient 1 1 0 0 +6 3
52 Gobelins 2 1 0 1 +4 3
53 Villefranche 2 1 0 1 +3 3
54 Epinal 2 1 0 1 +3 3
55 Louhans-Cuiseaux 2 1 0 1 +2 3
56 Rumilly Vallières 2 1 0 1 +2 3
57 Paris SG 1 1 0 0 +2 3
58 Marseille 1 1 0 0 +2 3
59 Brest 1 1 0 0 +2 3
60 Lens 1 1 0 0 +2 3
61 Nantes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
62 Thiers 2 1 0 1 +1 3
63 Châtellerault 2 1 0 1 +1 3
64 Olympique Marcquois 2 1 0 1 +1 3
65 Lyon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
66 Rennes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
67 Ajaccio 1 1 0 0 +1 3
68 Lyon Duchere 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Colomiers 2 1 0 1 +0 3
70 Union Cosnoise 2 1 0 1 +0 3
71 Haguenau 2 1 0 1 +0 3
72 Onet-le-Château 2 1 0 1 +0 3
73 Roche Saint-Genest 2 1 0 1 +0 3
74 Bourges Foot 18 3 0 3 0 +0 3
75 Vire 3 1 0 2 -1 3
76 Boé Bon Encontre 2 1 0 1 -1 3
77 Wasquehal 2 1 0 1 -1 3
78 Marnaval 2 1 0 1 -1 3
79 Mâcon 2 1 0 1 -2 3
80 Feignies-Aulnoye 2 1 0 1 -2 3
81 Stade Béthunois 2 1 0 1 -3 3
82 Marcoussis Nozay 2 1 0 1 -5 3
83 Aiglon 2 1 0 1 -9 3
84 Alençon 2 0 2 0 +0 2
85 Oissel 2 0 2 0 +0 2
86 St-Pryvé St-Hilaire 2 0 2 0 +0 2
87 Plouvorn 2 0 2 0 +0 2
88 Hyères 3 0 2 1 -2 2
89 Vannes 3 0 2 1 -2 2
90 Lannion 3 0 2 1 -6 2
91 Le Havre 1 0 1 0 +0 1
92 Monaco 1 0 1 0 +0 1
93 Auxerre 1 0 1 0 +0 1
94 Saint-Malo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 Olympique d'Alès 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Le Mans 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Alberes Argelès 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 Red Star 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Angoulême 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Poissy 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Laval 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Dijon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Toulon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Quevilly Rouen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Concarneau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Bourgoin-Jallieu 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Gueugnon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Châteaubriant 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Fleury 91 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 AC Paris 15 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Chambly Thelle FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Le Geldar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Etoile de Morne-à-l'Eau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 Sporting Baie-Mahault 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 St Etienne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
116 Strasbourg 1 0 1 0 +0 1
117 Angers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
118 Prix-lès-Mézières 1 0 1 0 +0 1
119 Vitré 1 0 1 0 +0 1
120 Saint-Apollinaire 1 0 1 0 +0 1
121 Clermont 1 0 1 0 +0 1
122 Merpins 1 0 1 0 +0 1
123 Sablé 1 0 1 0 +0 1
124 Saint-Pierroise 1 0 1 0 +0 1
125 Trélissac 2 0 1 1 -1 1
126 Drapeau Fougères 2 0 1 1 -1 1
127 Orvault SF 2 0 1 1 -1 1
128 Aubervilliers 2 0 1 1 -1 1
129 Ergué-Gaberic 2 0 1 1 -1 1
130 Lège-Cap-Ferret 2 0 1 1 -3 1
131 Grand Santi 2 0 1 1 -3 1
132 Montauban TG 2 0 1 1 -4 1
133 Velay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Nancy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Agde 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Le Pays du Valois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Montpellier 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Hienghène Sport 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Golden Lion 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Feurs 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Savigneux Montbrison 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Biars-Bretenoux 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 Escaudain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 Raon l'Etape 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Poitiers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 Nice 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Gallia Lucciana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
149 Mérignac-Arlac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
150 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
151 Saint-Priest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
152 Grand-Quevilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
153 Saint-Grégoire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
154 Éperlecques 1 0 0 1 -1 0
155 Cholet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
156 Chauray 1 0 0 1 -1 0
157 Gandrange 1 0 0 1 -1 0
158 NDC Angers 1 0 0 1 -2 0
159 SA Mérignac 1 0 0 1 -2 0
160 Les Ulis 1 0 0 1 -2 0
161 Vaulx 1 0 0 1 -2 0
162 Villers-lès-Nancy 1 0 0 1 -2 0
163 Saint-Doulchard 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Narbonne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Cambrai 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 Andrézieux 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Chartres-de-Bretagne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Fréjus St-Raphaël 1 0 0 1 -2 0
169 Cournon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
170 Lescar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
171 Basse Goulaine 1 0 0 1 -2 0
172 Pont Saintte-Maxence 1 0 0 1 -2 0
173 Auray 1 0 0 1 -2 0
174 JA Armentières 1 0 0 1 -2 0
175 Vénissieux 1 0 0 1 -2 0
176 Bondues 1 0 0 1 -2 0
177 Geispolsheim 1 0 0 1 -3 0
178 Illzach Modenheim 1 0 0 1 -3 0
179 Téteghem 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 Bastia-Borgo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
181 Hombourg-Haut 1 0 0 1 -3 0
182 Salinieres Aigues Mortes 1 0 0 1 -3 0
183 Beauvais 1 0 0 1 -3 0
184 Sarre Union 1 0 0 1 -3 0
185 Vénus 1 0 0 1 -3 0
186 Stade Bordelais 1 0 0 1 -3 0
187 Saint-Louis Neuweg 1 0 0 1 -3 0
188 Séné 1 0 0 1 -3 0
189 Heillecourt 1 0 0 1 -4 0
190 Havre Caucriauville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
191 Mareuil 1 0 0 1 -5 0
192 Liancourt Clermont 1 0 0 1 -5 0
193 Tarentaise 1 0 0 1 -5 0
194 Diables Noirs 1 0 0 1 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lille Troyes
1–0 J. David
A. Ounas
15′
21′
🟨 Derek Mazou-Sacko
32′
🟨 Mama Baldé
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Hamdi
↦ Mama Baldé
M. Bayo 🔁
↦ A. Gomes
63′
63′
🔁 D. Dongmo
↦ F. Tardieu
63′
🔁 T. Zoukrou
↦ A. Rami
2–0 M. Bayo
68′
70′
🟨 Danel Dongmo
A. Virginius 🔁
↦ C. Baleba
75′
J. Martin 🔁
↦ R. Cabella
75′
T. Weah 🔁
↦ A. Ounas
75′
77′
🔁 K. Dong
↦ Y. Larouci
77′
🔁 M. Moreno
↦ A. Ahmed Fatah
E. Zhegrova 🔁
↦ J. David
83′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
1 L. Chevalier G
3 Ismaily D
2 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
5 L. Yoro D
6 B. André M
10 R. Cabella M
11 A. Ounas M
8 A. Gomes M
7 C. Baleba M
9 J. David F
Bench (9)
19 M. Bayo
18 A. Virginius
14 J. Martin
15 T. Weah
17 E. Zhegrova
16 A. Jakubech
20 Léo Jardim
12 Tiago Djaló
13 S. Ramet

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Troyes

4-2-3-1
1 M. Lis G
4 A. Rami D
2 J. Porozo D
3 Y. Larouci D
8 R. Kohon D
5 T. Dingomé M
10 F. Tardieu M
6 D. Mazou-Sacko M
11 A. Ahmed Fatah M
7 Mama Baldé M
9 I. Ugbo F
Bench (9)
19 M. Hamdi
13 D. Dongmo
12 T. Zoukrou
14 K. Dong
15 M. Moreno
20 R. Ripart
16 G. Gallon
17 E. N'jo
18 A. Lefebvre

Coach: P. Kisnorbo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.