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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Middlesbrough

S S T U U

1–2

Full-time

Millwall

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 36/37 matches

Win Ø 51%

50%

51%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

46%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,04 xG 0,79

61% Possession 39%

32 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

18 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

17 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 4. · Millwall 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	39	24	8	7	+41	+31.1	80
2	Ipswich	38	19	12	7	+28	+26.4	69
3	Millwall	37	19	9	9	+9	+8.5	66
4	Middlesbrough	36	18	10	8	+15	+19.7	64
5	Wrexham	39	17	12	10	+9	-4.5	63
6	Hull	36	19	6	11	+8	-18.0	63
7	Southampton	37	17	11	9	+19	+15.7	62
8	Derby	39	17	9	13	+8	+0.1	60
9	Watford	39	14	14	11	+4	+7.4	56
10	Norwich	39	16	6	17	+6	-4.0	54
11	Birmingham	39	14	11	14	-1	+14.1	53
12	QPR	39	15	8	16	-6	-2.3	53
13	Preston	39	13	13	13	-4	-13.7	52
14	Swansea	39	15	7	17	-5	-5.6	52
15	Stoke	39	14	9	16	+3	-10.4	51
16	Bristol City	39	14	9	16	-1	-6.1	51
17	Sheffield United	39	15	5	19	+0	+13.0	50
18	Charlton	39	12	12	15	-10	-14.8	48
19	Leicester	39	11	12	16	-9	-15.9	45
20	Blackburn	39	11	10	18	-13	+4.0	43
21	West Brom	39	11	10	18	-14	+9.1	43
22	Portsmouth	38	10	10	18	-17	+0.3	40
23	Oxford	39	9	12	18	-15	-10.6	39
24	Sheffield Weds	39	1	9	29	-55	-43.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.0	45
2	Ipswich	20	12	7	1	+22	+23.5	43
3	Watford	20	10	6	4	+9	+6.3	36
4	Millwall	19	11	3	5	+7	+7.8	36
5	Southampton	18	10	5	3	+15	+11.2	35
6	Birmingham	19	9	8	2	+14	+18.8	35
7	Swansea	20	10	5	5	+6	-0.5	35
8	Middlesbrough	18	9	6	3	+9	+9.6	33
9	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
10	Hull	18	10	3	5	+5	-5.3	33
11	Derby	20	8	6	6	+2	+2.0	30
12	Preston	20	8	6	6	+2	-2.6	30
13	Stoke	19	8	5	6	+8	+1.3	29
14	QPR	19	9	2	8	+4	+6.1	29
15	West Brom	19	7	7	5	+0	+12.1	28
16	Charlton	19	8	4	7	-1	+0.3	28
17	Sheffield United	19	8	3	8	+7	+14.7	27
18	Bristol City	20	7	4	9	+1	-2.4	25
19	Norwich	19	8	1	10	+0	+1.0	25
20	Leicester	19	7	4	8	-2	-2.9	25
21	Portsmouth	19	6	4	9	-1	+7.1	22
22	Oxford	19	5	7	7	-7	-0.9	22
23	Blackburn	20	4	7	9	-7	+5.5	19
24	Sheffield Weds	20	0	5	15	-31	-20.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	10	5	5	+16	+10.1	35
2	Middlesbrough	18	9	4	5	+6	+10.1	31
3	Derby	19	9	3	7	+6	-1.9	30
4	Hull	18	9	3	6	+3	-12.7	30
5	Wrexham	19	8	6	5	+3	-12.1	30
6	Millwall	18	8	6	4	+2	+0.7	30
7	Norwich	20	8	5	7	+6	-5.0	29
8	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
9	Ipswich	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.9	26
10	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-2	-3.7	26
11	Blackburn	19	7	3	9	-6	-1.5	24
12	QPR	20	6	6	8	-10	-8.4	24
13	Sheffield United	20	7	2	11	-7	-1.7	23
14	Stoke	20	6	4	10	-5	-11.7	22
15	Preston	19	5	7	7	-6	-11.1	22
16	Watford	19	4	8	7	-5	+1.1	20
17	Leicester	20	4	8	8	-7	-13.0	20
18	Charlton	20	4	8	8	-9	-15.1	20
19	Birmingham	20	5	3	12	-15	-4.7	18
20	Portsmouth	19	4	6	9	-16	-6.7	18
21	Oxford	20	4	5	11	-8	-9.8	17
22	Swansea	19	5	2	12	-11	-5.1	17
23	West Brom	20	4	3	13	-14	-2.9	15
24	Sheffield Weds	19	1	4	14	-24	-23.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.