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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Nobre

Sp Lisbon

T U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Alverca

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

78%

33%

Points per game

2,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

67%

78%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

2,6

1,2

Conceded

0,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,34 xG 0,31

67% Possession 33%

27 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Alverca 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	9	8	1	0	+19	+13.8	25
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+18	+16.2	22
3	Benfica	9	6	3	0	+14	+10.7	21
4	Gil Vicente	9	6	1	2	+10	+3.9	19
5	Famalicao	9	4	4	1	+6	+4.6	16
6	Moreirense	9	5	0	4	+0	-5.1	15
7	Sp Braga	9	3	4	2	+8	+4.9	13
8	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-1	-5.2	11
9	Santa Clara	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
10	Nacional	9	3	2	4	-3	-1.3	11
11	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	-5	-2.5	11
12	Alverca	9	3	1	5	-5	-0.9	10
13	Arouca	9	2	3	4	-14	-13.2	9
14	Casa Pia	9	2	2	5	-9	-7.1	8
15	Estoril	9	1	4	4	-3	-4.8	7
16	Estrela	9	1	4	4	-3	-0.4	7
17	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-13	-7.9	5
18	AVS	9	0	1	8	-17	-8.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+5	-0.5	12
2	Benfica	5	3	2	0	+9	+8.7	11
3	Porto	4	3	1	0	+8	+6.9	10
4	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
5	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.7	8
6	Guimaraes	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.5	8
7	Sp Lisbon	4	2	1	1	+8	+6.8	7
8	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+5	+4.9	7
9	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	+4.0	7
10	Alverca	5	2	0	3	-5	+0.8	6
11	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.8	5
12	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.3	5
13	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-4	-6.0	5
14	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.3	4
15	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	+0.2	3
16	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
17	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.1	2
18	AVS	4	0	0	4	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+6.9	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+10	+9.4	15
3	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+6	+0.6	10
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
5	Nacional	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.6	8
6	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
7	Sp Braga	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.0	6
8	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-1	-4.4	6
9	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-5	-2.7	6
10	Alverca	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.6	4
11	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.2	4
12	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-10	-7.2	4
13	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
15	Guimaraes	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.0	3
16	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.9	3
17	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
18	AVS	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.