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Taça de Portugal

Lusitano Évora 1911

U U S T S

1–0

Full-time

FC Serpa

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lusitano Évora 1911 FC Serpa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,2

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

8,0

3,0

Scored

7,0

3,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+6,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Lusitano Évora 1911 9. · FC Serpa 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caldas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	AD Marco 09	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
5	Peniche	1	1	0	0	+8	3
6	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+7	3
7	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
8	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+6	3
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
10	Atlético Malveira	1	1	0	0	+6	3
11	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Correlhã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Comércio Indústria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Vila Caíz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Nazarenos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2	1	0	1	-3	3
48	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
49	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
93	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
94	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
95	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
96	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
97	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
98	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
99	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caldas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
4	Peniche	1	1	0	0	+8	3
5	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+7	3
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
7	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+6	3
8	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Correlhã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Comércio Indústria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Vila Caíz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Nazarenos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
28	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
46	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
47	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
48	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Atlético Malveira	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
42	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
46	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
47	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
48	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
49	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
50	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
51	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
52	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
53	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.