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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Luton

T T T S S

2–3

Full-time

Chelsea

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 30%

22%

37%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

67%

58%

Both score Ø 65%

72%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,53 xG 1,50

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Chelsea 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	12	6	1	+23	+15.6	42
2	Arsenal	19	12	4	3	+18	+20.1	40
3	Aston Villa	19	12	3	4	+15	+8.8	39
4	Man City	18	11	4	3	+22	+17.6	37
5	Tottenham	19	11	3	5	+11	-0.8	36
6	West Ham	19	10	3	6	+3	-6.1	33
7	Man United	19	10	1	8	-4	-3.7	31
8	Brighton	19	8	6	5	+5	+3.8	30
9	Newcastle	19	9	2	8	+12	+12.3	29
10	Everton	19	8	2	9	-1	+3.8	26
11	Chelsea	19	7	4	8	+2	+11.6	25
12	Wolves	19	7	4	8	-4	-7.8	25
13	Bournemouth	18	7	4	7	-5	-3.6	25
14	Fulham	19	6	3	10	-8	-9.9	21
15	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-3	+7.8	19
16	Crystal Palace	19	4	6	9	-9	-3.6	18
17	Nott'm Forest	19	4	5	10	-12	-6.9	17
18	Luton	18	4	3	11	-13	-21.0	15
19	Burnley	19	3	2	14	-20	-16.0	11
20	Sheffield United	19	2	3	14	-32	-22.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	9	8	1	0	+20	+10.2	25
2	Newcastle	10	8	0	2	+16	+13.9	24
3	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+16	+13.3	23
4	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.6	23
5	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+8	+6.2	19
6	Man City	8	5	3	0	+13	+5.6	18
7	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+5	+1.3	18
8	Man United	10	6	0	4	-3	+2.1	18
9	West Ham	9	5	2	2	+7	-2.3	17
10	Fulham	9	5	0	4	+6	+3.6	15
11	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+3	+9.1	15
12	Wolves	9	4	3	2	-1	-3.1	15
13	Brentford	10	3	3	4	-1	+4.7	12
14	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.3	12
15	Everton	10	3	1	6	-1	+5.5	10
16	Nott'm Forest	9	2	3	4	-2	-0.1	9
17	Luton	9	2	2	5	-3	-4.8	8
18	Sheffield United	10	2	1	7	-14	-9.3	7
19	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.7	6
20	Burnley	10	1	0	9	-14	-5.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	10	6	1	3	+9	+12.0	19
2	Liverpool	10	5	4	1	+7	+2.3	19
3	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+6	-2.1	18
4	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.5	17
5	Everton	9	5	1	3	+0	-1.7	16
6	West Ham	10	5	1	4	-4	-3.8	16
7	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-5	-1.4	14
8	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	-5.9	13
9	Bournemouth	9	4	1	4	-4	-2.3	13
10	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-4	-2.9	12
11	Brighton	9	3	2	4	-3	-2.4	11
12	Chelsea	9	3	1	5	-1	+2.5	10
13	Wolves	10	3	1	6	-3	-4.7	10
14	Burnley	9	2	2	5	-6	-10.2	8
15	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-10	-6.8	8
16	Brentford	8	2	1	5	-2	+3.2	7
17	Luton	9	2	1	6	-10	-16.3	7
18	Fulham	10	1	3	6	-14	-13.5	6
19	Newcastle	9	1	2	6	-4	-1.6	5
20	Sheffield United	9	0	2	7	-18	-12.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.