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Championship

Referee: Adam Herczeg

Stoke

T S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,2

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 27/24 matches

Win Ø 47%

44%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

33%

54%

Average goals

2,0

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,81 xG 1,22

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 8. · Middlesbrough 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	28	17	7	4	+30	+22.5	58
2	Ipswich	27	14	8	5	+23	+22.2	50
3	Millwall	27	13	7	7	-1	+1.4	46
4	Hull	25	13	5	7	+7	-13.5	44
5	Preston	28	11	10	7	+7	-4.9	43
6	Watford	27	11	9	7	+6	+6.5	42
7	Middlesbrough	24	12	6	6	+5	+6.7	42
8	Stoke	27	12	5	10	+9	-3.7	41
9	Wrexham	28	10	11	7	+5	-4.4	41
10	Derby	28	11	8	9	+2	-4.4	41
11	Bristol City	28	11	7	10	+7	-0.6	40
12	QPR	28	11	7	10	-1	+1.2	40
13	Birmingham	28	10	8	10	+1	+11.9	38
14	Leicester	28	10	8	10	-2	-10.3	38
15	Swansea	28	10	6	12	-4	-7.7	36
16	Southampton	26	9	8	9	+4	+11.5	35
17	Sheffield United	27	10	2	15	-4	+12.2	32
18	Charlton	27	8	8	11	-7	-9.3	32
19	West Brom	28	9	4	15	-12	+5.4	31
20	Norwich	28	8	6	14	-5	-9.9	30
21	Portsmouth	26	7	8	11	-13	-6.6	29
22	Blackburn	27	7	7	13	-11	+5.2	28
23	Oxford	27	5	9	13	-10	-6.2	24
24	Sheffield Weds	27	1	8	18	-36	-25.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	11	2	1	+20	+12.1	35
2	Ipswich	15	10	4	1	+18	+18.5	34
3	Watford	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.1	29
4	Birmingham	13	7	5	1	+14	+14.5	26
5	Millwall	13	8	2	3	+2	+4.3	26
6	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.6	25
7	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+1.7	24
8	Wrexham	15	6	6	3	+4	+5.8	24
9	QPR	13	7	2	4	+7	+7.5	23
10	Preston	15	6	5	4	+3	-0.8	23
11	Hull	12	7	2	3	+3	-3.2	23
12	Southampton	13	6	4	3	+6	+9.1	22
13	Leicester	13	6	4	3	+4	+1.4	22
14	West Brom	14	6	4	4	-1	+8.4	22
15	Bristol City	14	6	3	5	+8	+0.2	21
16	Stoke	13	6	3	4	+8	+0.8	21
17	Charlton	13	6	3	4	+1	-2.7	21
18	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
19	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+5	+11.8	17
20	Derby	14	4	5	5	-3	+0.2	17
21	Oxford	14	3	6	5	-4	+1.1	15
22	Blackburn	13	2	4	7	-7	+4.8	10
23	Norwich	13	3	1	9	-7	-1.2	10
24	Sheffield Weds	15	0	4	11	-25	-12.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	14	7	3	4	+5	-4.6	24
2	Coventry	14	6	5	3	+10	+10.4	23
3	Hull	13	6	3	4	+4	-10.3	21
4	Preston	13	5	5	3	+4	-4.2	20
5	Norwich	15	5	5	5	+2	-8.6	20
6	Stoke	14	6	2	6	+1	-4.5	20
7	Millwall	14	5	5	4	-3	-2.9	20
8	Bristol City	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.8	19
9	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+0	+4.9	18
10	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-4	+0.4	18
11	Wrexham	13	4	5	4	+1	-10.2	17
12	QPR	15	4	5	6	-8	-6.3	17
13	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
14	Leicester	15	4	4	7	-6	-11.7	16
15	Sheffield United	15	5	0	10	-9	+0.4	15
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-2	+2.5	13
17	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
18	Birmingham	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.6	12
19	Swansea	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.1	11
20	Charlton	14	2	5	7	-8	-6.6	11
21	Portsmouth	13	2	5	6	-13	-8.1	11
22	Oxford	13	2	3	8	-6	-7.3	9
23	West Brom	14	3	0	11	-11	-3.0	9
24	Sheffield Weds	12	1	4	7	-11	-12.4	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.