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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Lorient

S U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Nantes

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

0,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 24%

32%

16%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

42%

47%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,52 xG 1,42

57% Possession 43%

5 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 9. · Nantes 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	20	15	1	4	+18	+12.0	46
2	Paris SG	19	14	3	2	+26	+18.6	45
3	Marseille	20	12	3	5	+24	+13.1	39
4	Lyon	19	11	3	5	+12	+9.7	36
5	Lille	19	10	2	7	+5	+5.1	32
6	Rennes	19	8	7	4	+3	+1.7	31
7	Strasbourg	19	9	3	7	+9	+6.5	30
8	Toulouse	19	8	5	6	+8	+1.6	29
9	Lorient	19	6	7	6	-5	+1.4	25
10	Monaco	19	7	3	9	-5	+3.0	24
11	Angers	19	6	5	8	-5	-13.9	23
12	Brest	19	6	4	9	-7	+0.7	22
13	Paris FC	20	5	6	9	-8	-7.0	21
14	Nice	19	6	3	10	-11	-10.8	21
15	Le Havre	20	4	8	8	-9	-5.7	20
16	Nantes	19	3	5	11	-16	-12.7	14
17	Auxerre	19	3	3	13	-15	-7.5	12
18	Metz	19	3	3	13	-24	-15.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	10	9	0	1	+14	+13.0	27
2	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+18	+10.1	25
3	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+16	+8.8	23
4	Lyon	9	7	0	2	+9	+9.6	21
5	Strasbourg	9	6	1	2	+11	+10.1	19
6	Lille	10	6	1	3	+5	+6.8	19
7	Rennes	10	5	3	2	+8	+8.5	18
8	Lorient	9	4	4	1	+3	+5.1	16
9	Monaco	10	5	1	4	+0	+4.8	16
10	Toulouse	10	4	3	3	+4	+3.7	15
11	Brest	10	4	3	3	+1	+8.1	15
12	Angers	9	4	2	3	+2	-3.2	14
13	Le Havre	10	3	5	2	+2	+6.2	14
14	Nice	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.1	14
15	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-2	+1.8	10
16	Paris FC	10	2	4	4	-3	-0.8	10
17	Metz	9	2	2	5	-6	-2.8	8
18	Nantes	10	1	2	7	-11	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	6	2	2	+8	+8.4	20
2	Lens	10	6	1	3	+4	-1.0	19
3	Marseille	10	5	1	4	+8	+4.2	16
4	Lyon	10	4	3	3	+3	+0.1	15
5	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.1	14
6	Lille	9	4	1	4	+0	-1.7	13
7	Rennes	9	3	4	2	-5	-6.8	13
8	Strasbourg	10	3	2	5	-2	-3.7	11
9	Paris FC	10	3	2	5	-5	-6.2	11
10	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-5	-6.0	9
11	Angers	10	2	3	5	-7	-10.7	9
12	Lorient	10	2	3	5	-8	-3.7	9
13	Monaco	9	2	2	5	-5	-1.8	8
14	Brest	9	2	1	6	-8	-7.4	7
15	Nice	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
16	Le Havre	10	1	3	6	-11	-11.9	6
17	Metz	10	1	1	8	-18	-13.0	4
18	Auxerre	9	0	2	7	-13	-9.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.