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Serie B

Referee: M Di Bello

Sampdoria

U S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Spezia

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 22%

19%

24%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

Both score Ø 57%

62%

52%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,65 xG 1,49

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 11

6 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 23

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sampdoria 19. · Spezia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	22	14	5	3	+25	+22.3	47
2	Frosinone	22	13	7	2	+21	+3.0	46
3	Palermo	22	11	8	3	+19	+7.4	41
4	Monza	21	12	5	4	+15	+7.5	41
5	Modena	22	9	7	6	+11	+5.4	34
6	Cesena	22	10	4	8	+2	+5.8	34
7	Juve Stabia	21	8	9	4	+1	+1.2	33
8	Catanzaro	22	8	8	6	+2	-0.7	32
9	Carrarese	22	7	8	7	-1	-7.6	29
10	Sudtirol	22	6	10	6	+1	-5.0	28
11	Empoli	22	7	7	8	-2	+0.5	28
12	Avellino	22	7	7	8	-8	-9.1	28
13	Padova	21	6	7	8	-5	-4.0	25
14	Virtus Entella	22	4	9	9	-10	-4.9	21
15	Reggiana	21	5	5	11	-7	-2.9	20
16	Spezia	21	5	5	11	-9	+1.1	20
17	Mantova	22	5	5	12	-14	-3.7	20
18	Bari	22	4	8	10	-16	-12.3	20
19	Sampdoria	21	4	7	10	-8	+1.0	19
20	Pescara	22	2	9	11	-17	-5.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	11	10	0	1	+19	+11.7	30
2	Monza	11	8	2	1	+12	+4.5	26
3	Palermo	11	7	3	1	+13	+4.5	24
4	Frosinone	10	7	2	1	+14	+2.7	23
5	Juve Stabia	11	6	5	0	+8	+1.9	23
6	Catanzaro	11	5	5	1	+5	+1.6	20
7	Carrarese	11	5	4	2	+7	+2.3	19
8	Modena	11	5	3	3	+7	-1.3	18
9	Virtus Entella	11	4	6	1	+4	-0.6	18
10	Avellino	11	5	3	3	-1	-6.4	18
11	Sudtirol	11	5	2	4	+4	-3.3	17
12	Empoli	12	3	7	2	+5	+3.0	16
13	Cesena	10	4	3	3	+3	+5.8	15
14	Sampdoria	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.5	15
15	Bari	11	3	4	4	-3	-7.3	13
16	Reggiana	10	3	3	4	+0	-1.9	12
17	Spezia	11	3	3	5	-5	-1.2	12
18	Padova	10	2	5	3	-1	-4.1	11
19	Pescara	12	2	5	5	-3	-3.2	11
20	Mantova	11	3	2	6	-8	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	12	6	5	1	+7	+0.3	23
2	Cesena	12	6	1	5	-1	+0.0	19
3	Venezia	11	4	5	2	+6	+10.6	17
4	Palermo	11	4	5	2	+6	+2.9	17
5	Modena	11	4	4	3	+4	+6.7	16
6	Monza	10	4	3	3	+3	+2.9	15
7	Padova	11	4	2	5	-4	+0.1	14
8	Catanzaro	11	3	3	5	-3	-2.3	12
9	Empoli	10	4	0	6	-7	-2.5	12
10	Sudtirol	11	1	8	2	-3	-1.7	11
11	Juve Stabia	10	2	4	4	-7	-0.7	10
12	Avellino	11	2	4	5	-7	-2.6	10
13	Carrarese	11	2	4	5	-8	-9.9	10
14	Mantova	11	2	3	6	-6	-2.7	9
15	Spezia	10	2	2	6	-4	+2.3	8
16	Reggiana	11	2	2	7	-7	-1.0	8
17	Bari	11	1	4	6	-13	-5.0	7
18	Sampdoria	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.5	4
19	Pescara	10	0	4	6	-14	-1.8	4
20	Virtus Entella	11	0	3	8	-14	-4.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.